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Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007

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  • Jiranyakul, Komain

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables in Thailand. The results from Johansen cointegration test shows that the variables are cointegrated. Thus there exists a long-run relationship between the stock market index and a set of four macroeconomic variables. Real GDP, money supply, and nominal effective exchange rate significantly impose a positive impact on the stock market index while the price level insignificantly imposes a negative impact. The financial crisis in 1997 has no influence on stock prices. The causality test results from an error correction model show bidirectional causal relations between stock market return and the growth rate in the long run and the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 45582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45582
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, David Y. & Li, Tongzhe, 2014. "Financial crises, Asian stock indices, and current accounts: An Asian-U.S. comparative study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 66-78.
    2. Dohyun CHUN & Hoon CHO & Doojin RYU, 2018. "Macroeconomic Structural Changes in a Leading Emerging Market: The Effects of the Asian Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-42, December.
    3. Imran Hussain Shah & Hans Matthias Wanovits & Richard Hatfield, 2021. "Uncovering investment management performance using SPIVA data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3676-3695, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market returns; macro variables; unit root; cointegration; causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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