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The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach

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  • Gary Tian
  • Shiguang Ma

Abstract

This study employs the ARDL cointegration approach in order to examine the impact of financial liberalization on the relationships between the exchange rate and share market performance in China. We discovered that cointegration has existed between the Shanghai A Share Index and the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar since 2005, when the Chinese exchange rate regime became a flexible, managed, floating system. We found that both the exchange rate and the money supply influenced stock price, with a positive correlation. We further show that the money supply increase was largely caused by a huge ‘hot money’ inflow from other countries in recent years. After local currency appreciation, hot money, followed by the money supply increase, pushed the market into a high level, based on expectations regarding the local currency's further appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Tian & Shiguang Ma, 2010. "The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 490-508.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:15:y:2010:i:4:p:490-508
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2010.516171
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    10. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    12. Karunanayake, Indika, 2014. "Exchange Rate Influences On Stock Market Returns And Volatility Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From The Australian Stock Market," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
    13. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
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    19. Nikolaos Stoupos & Apostolos Kiohos, 2021. "BREXIT referendum’s impact on the financial markets in the UK," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Hande Aksoz Yilmaz & Fatih Guzel, 2021. "How Do the Exchange Rates Affect the Sector Indices? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Borsa Istanbul," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(71-2), pages 411-434, December.
    21. Omer Ahmed Sayed Mohamed & Faiza Omer Mohammed Elmahgop, 2020. "Is the Effect of the Exchange Rate on Stock Prices Symmetric or Asymmetric? Evidence from Sudan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 209-215.

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