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Nexuses between economic factors and stock returns in China

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  • Khan, Muhammad Kamran
  • Teng, Jian -Zhou
  • Parviaz, Javed
  • Chaudhary, Sunil Kumar

Abstract

Economist and stock managers always focus on stock market return. This study investigated short and long run relationship between economic factors and stock returns in China by applying ARDL approach from 01/2000 to 12/2016. Estimated results of bound test for co-integration shows that long run relationships exist among the variables except inflation rate. Results of short and long run ARDL demonstrate that exchange rate and inflation rate have positive effect on stock returns in China while interest rate have negative effect on stock returns. Results indicate that stock returns in China are very sensitive and can be affected positively or negatively with increase and decrease in economic factors. Both local and regional factors in China can directly and indirectly explain Shanghai Stock Exchange stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Teng, Jian -Zhou & Parviaz, Javed & Chaudhary, Sunil Kumar, 2017. "Nexuses between economic factors and stock returns in China," MPRA Paper 81017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Aug 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81017
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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Teng, Jian-Zhou & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Jadoon, Arshad Ullah & Khan, Muhammad Fayaz, 2021. "The impact of oil prices on stock market development in Pakistan: Evidence with a novel dynamic simulated ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of oil prices on stock returns in Shanghai stock exchange: Evidence from asymmetric ARDL model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Sumit Kumar Maji & Arindam Laha & Debasish Sur, 2020. "Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 239-269, August.
    4. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Nnenna Ogbonnaya‐Orji, 2022. "A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of U.S. stock returns to exchange rate movements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1220-1239, January.
    5. Wang, Jianli & Qiu, Shushu & Yick, Ho Yin, 2022. "The influence of the Shanghai crude oil futures on the global and domestic oil markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    6. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Muhammad Imran Khan & Muhammad Rehan, 2020. "The relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Md. Qamruzzaman & Ananda Bardhan & Summatun Nasya, 2020. "Nexus between Remittance, Nonperforming Loan, Money Supply, and Financial Volatility: An Application of ARDL," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 11-29.
    8. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian‐Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan & Muhammad Fayaz Khan, 2023. "Stock market reaction to macroeconomic variables: An assessment with dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2436-2448, July.
    9. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    10. Wang, Tiantian & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Shi, Xunpeng, 2020. "Market reforms and determinants of import natural gas prices in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock returns; economic factors; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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