IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-11-00545.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does the Exchange Rate Movement Affect Macroeconomic Performance? A VAR Analysis with Sign Restriction Approach– Evidence from Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan M. Berument

    (Bilkent University)

  • Zulal S Denaux

    (Valdosta State University)

  • Yeliz Yalcin

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the effect of exchange rate movement on macroeconomic performance by differentiating the source of exchange rate movement as either an expansionary monetary policy or a portfolio preference shock using quarterly data from Turkish economy for the period 1987:Q1 to 2008:Q3. Empirical evidence suggest that if the depreciation of the exchange rate stems from an expansionary monetary policy shock, then the effect of currency depreciation on the economy is expansionary. On the other hand, if currency depreciation comes from a portfolio choice allocation, then the effect of exchange rate deprecation on the economy is contractionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan M. Berument & Zulal S Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2012. "How does the Exchange Rate Movement Affect Macroeconomic Performance? A VAR Analysis with Sign Restriction Approach– Evidence from Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 295-305.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2012/Volume32/EB-12-V32-I1-P27.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    3. Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 597-621, October.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. M. Rusydi & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Exchange Rate Economics in Developing Countries: Indonesian Exchange Rate Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Quantitative Exchange Rate Economics in Developing Countries, chapter 3, pages 34-44, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Julio A. Santaella & Mr. Abraham Everardo Vela, 1996. "The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program: An Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization?," IMF Working Papers 1996/024, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 645-671, August.
    10. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    12. Morley, Samuel A, 1992. "On the Effect of Devaluation during Stabilization Programs in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 21-27, February.
    13. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
    14. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Umit Bulut, 2016. "May Monetary Transmission Lags Have a Role in Missing Inflation Targets in Turkey? Cointegration Tests with Structural Breaks and Structural VAR Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 93-103, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Hakan Berument & Zulal Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2012. "Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(36), pages 4787-4798, December.
    2. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Martha Misas A, 1995. "La tasa de interés en Colombia: 1958-1992," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 14(27), pages 63-94, June.
    5. Neeraj, & Panigrahi, Prasanta K., 2017. "Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 481(C), pages 284-313.
    6. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-11, October.
    7. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January.
    8. Mohamed Amine Boutaba, 2009. "Dynamic linkages among European carbon markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 499-511.
    9. Halkos, George E. & Paizanos, Epameinondas Α., 2016. "The effects of fiscal policy on CO2 emissions: Evidence from the U.S.A," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 317-328.
    10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    11. Cinzia Alcidi, 2009. "The Effect of Equity Market Integration on the Transmission Monetary Policy. Evidence from Australia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. James Oehmke & David Schimmelpfennig, 2004. "Quantifying Structural Change in U.S. Agriculture: The Case of Research and Productivity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 297-315, May.
    13. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1998. "Temporal causality and the inflation-productivity relationship: Evidence from eight low inflation OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 117-135.
    14. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2002. "Energy consumption and economic growth: assessing the evidence from Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 319-336, July.
    15. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    17. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "Euro-land: any good for the European South?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-81, January.
    18. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shock on Output and Prices in Thailand," MPRA Paper 75708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Efthymios Tsionas, 2001. "Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 689-696.
    20. Henry, Olan T. & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "Is there a unit root in inflation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 481-500, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; Monetary Policy; Vector Autoregression and Sign Restrictions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.