IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/regstd/v35y2001i8p689-696.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data

Author

Listed:
  • Efthymios Tsionas

Abstract

The paper utilizes modern econometric techniques organized around I(1) and cointegration analysis to examine the number of common, stochastic long-run trends in regional incomes and assess the hypothesis of regional convergence for the US over the period 1929-1997. Time series evidence is conflicting but tends to indicate the presence of too many common, stochastic, long-run trends, thus providing no support for the convergence hypothesis. L'article emploie des techniques econometriques recentes basees sur des analyses I(1) et cointegree afin d'examiner le nombre de tendances communes, stochastiques a long terme des revenus regionaux et d'evaluer l'hypothese qui avance la notion de la convergence regionale aux Etats-Unis sur la periode qui va de 1929 a 1997. Des preuves presentees en serie temporelle s'averent contradictoires mais semblent indiquer la presence d'un nombre trop eleve de tendances communes, stochastiques a long terme, ce qui ne vient pas a l'appui de l'hypothese qui avance la notion de convergence. Dieser Aufsatz bedient sich moderner, okonometrischer Techniken, die um 1(1) angeordnet sind, sowie einer Ko-integrationsanalyse, um die Zahl der gewohnlichen, stochastisch langfristigen Tendenzen bei regionalen Einkommen zu untersuchen, und die Hypothese regionaler Konvergenz fur die Vereinigten Staaten im Zeitraum 1929-1997 zu beurteilen. Zeitserienbeweise widersprechen einander, zeigen jedoch meist ein Vorhandensein zu vieler gewohnlicher, stochasisch langfristiger Tendenzen an, und stellen somit keine Stu¨tzung der Konvergenzhypothese dar.

Suggested Citation

  • Efthymios Tsionas, 2001. "Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 689-696.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:35:y:2001:i:8:p:689-696
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400120084687
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00343400120084687
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00343400120084687?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    5. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    6. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. John Geweke, 1996. "Simulation-based Bayesian inference for economic time series," Working Papers 570, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "Euro-land: any good for the European South?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-81, January.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. DeJong, David N., 1992. "Co-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series : Evidence from the likelihood function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 347-370, June.
    15. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    16. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April.
    17. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    18. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994. "Cross-sectional regressions and the empirics of economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 739-747, April.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. Efthymios Tsionas, 2000. "Regional Growth and Convergence: Evidence from the United States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 231-238.
    21. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    22. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
    23. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 1998. "Monte Carlo inference in econometric models with symmetric stable disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-401, November.
    24. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Josep Lluis Carrion-I-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2007. "Stochastic Convergence amongst Mexican States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 531-541.
    2. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2010. "Stochastic convergence in the industrial sector of the Mexican states," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 45(3), pages 547-570, December.
    3. Melanie Rapino & Benjamin Spaulding & Dean M. Hanink, 2006. "Have Per Capita Earnings and Income Converged across New England?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 620-637, December.
    4. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2014. "A Note On The Extent Of U.S. Regional Income Convergence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1635-1655, October.
    5. Nicky Rogge, 2019. "Regional productivity growth in the EU since 2000: something is better than nothing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 423-444, February.
    6. Alexiadis, Stilianos & Eleftheriou, Konstantinos, 2010. "The Morphology of Income Convergence in US States: New Evidence using an Error-Correction-Model," MPRA Paper 20096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Daly, Vince & Li, Hong, 2003. "Time series tests of convergence of Chinese regional and provincial economic performance," Economics Discussion Papers 2003-10, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    8. Weber, William L. & Domazlicky, Bruce R., 2006. "Capital Deepening and Manufacturing's Contribution to Regional Economic Convergence," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14.
    9. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2007. "Are Regional Incomes in the USA Converging? A Non-linear Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 525-530.
    10. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Efthymios Tsionas, 2003. "Inflation and Productivity in Europe: An Empirical Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 39-62, March.
    2. BAUMONT, Catherine & ERTUR, Cem & LE GALLO, Julie, 2000. "Convergence des régions européennes. Une approche par l'économétrie spatiale," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 2000-03, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
    3. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "Euro-land: any good for the European South?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-81, January.
    4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    5. Abdul Qayyum, 2000. "Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 857-873.
    6. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    7. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    8. Catherine Baumont & Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo, 2000. "Convergence of European regions (an approach by spatial econometrics) [Convergence des régions européennes (une approche par l'économétrie spatiale)]," Working Papers hal-01526961, HAL.
    9. David EA Giles, 2005. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 93-114.
    10. Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas, 2005. "Testing Efficiency Of The Copper Futures Market: New Evidence From London Metal Exchange," Finance 0512010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    13. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    14. Le Pen, Yannick, 2011. "A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 955-964, May.
    15. Wang, David Han-Min, 2007. "Convergence tests on tax burden and economic growth among China, Taiwan and the OECD countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 278-286.
    16. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    17. E. Schirru, 1996. "Modelli di determinazione del tasso di cambio: un'analisi di cointegrazione," Working Paper CRENoS 199610, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    18. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    19. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    20. Richard Palmer‐Jones & Ashok Parikh, 1998. "The Determination of Agricultural Wage Rates in Bangladesh," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 111-133, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:35:y:2001:i:8:p:689-696. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRES20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.