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Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death

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  • Isaac Sasson

    (Tel Aviv University)

Abstract

Background: Demographers have emphasized the importance of age in explaining the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on mortality. However, the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and age should be contextualized in relation to other causes of death. Objective: To compare the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality with other causes of death and across countries, and to use these regularities to impute age-specific death counts in countries with limited data. Methods: The COVID-19 mortality doubling time in a Gompertz context was compared with 65 major causes of death using US vital statistics. COVID-19 fatality doubling time was similarly compared across 27 countries and used for estimating death counts by age in Israel as a case in point. Results: First, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age at a Gompertz rate near the median of aging-related causes of death, as well as pneumonia and influenza. Second, COVID-19 mortality levels are 2.8 to 8.2 times higher than pneumonia and influenza across the adult age range. Third, the relationship between both COVID-19 mortality and fatality and age varies considerably across countries. Conclusions: The increase in COVID-19 mortality with age resembles the population rate of aging. Country differences in the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality and fatality may point to differences in underlying population health, standards of clinical care, or data quality. Contribution: This study underscores the need to contextualize the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality in relation to other causes of death. Furthermore, it demonstrates how to estimate age-specific COVID-19 deaths in countries with limited data availability.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac Sasson, 2021. "Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(16), pages 379-396.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:44:y:2021:i:16
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Demombynes,Gabriel & De Walque,Damien B. C. M. & Gubbins,Paul Michael & Urdinola,Beatriz Piedad & Veillard,Jeremy Henri Maurice, 2021. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official DeathCounts and Excess Deaths," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9807, The World Bank.
    2. Josep Lledó & Jose M. Pavía & Jorge Sánchez Salas, 2023. "An alternative approach to manage mortality catastrophe risks under Solvency II," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Anneliese N. Luck & Irma T. Elo & Samuel H. Preston & Eugenio Paglino & Katherine Hempstead & Andrew C. Stokes, 2023. "COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-29, August.
    4. Héctor Pifarré i Arolas & Enrique Acosta & Christian Dudel & Jo M. Hale & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "U.S. racial/ethnic mortality gap adjusted for population structure," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-023, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Christophe Z Guilmoto, 2022. "An alternative estimation of the death toll of the Covid-19 pandemic in India," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2021. "Mortality Rates by College Degree Before and During COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Vallejo-Borda, Jose Agustin & Giesen, Ricardo & Basnak, Paul & Reyes, José P. & Mella Lira, Beatriz & Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A. & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2022. "Characterising public transport shifting to active and private modes in South American capitals during the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 186-205.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; mortality; aging; Gompertz law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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