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The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics

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  • Giagheddu, Marta
  • Papetti, Andrea

Abstract

We incorporate age-specific socio-economic interactions in a SIR macroeconomic model to study the role of demographic factors for the COVID-19 epidemic evolution, its macroeconomic effects and possible containment measures. We capture the endogenous response of rational individuals who choose to reduce inter- and intra-generational social interactions, consumption- and labor-related personal exposure to the virus, while not internalizing the impact of their actions on others. We find that social distancing measures targeted to the elderly (who face higher mortality risk and are not part of the labor force) are best suited to save lives and mitigate output losses. The optimal economic shutdown generates small gains in terms of lives saved and large output losses, for any given type of social distancing. These results are confirmed by calibrating the model to match real epidemic and economic data in the context of a scenario exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Giagheddu, Marta & Papetti, Andrea, 2023. "The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:151:y:2023:i:c:s0014292122002264
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104346
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    Cited by:

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    2. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2024. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemic; COVID-19; Recessions; Demographics; Age differences; Vaccine; Containment policies; SIR macro model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General

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