IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9313.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Demombynes,Gabriel

Abstract

A greater share of reported COVID-19 deaths occur at younger ages in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs). Based on data from 26 countries, people age 70 and older constitute 37 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in LMICs on average, versus 87 percent in HICs. Only part of this difference is accounted for by differences in population age structure. In this paper, COVID-19 mortality rates are calculated for each age group by dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the underlying population. The resulting age-mortality curves are flatter in countries with lower incomes. In HICs, the COVID-19 mortality rate for those ages 70-79 is 12.6 times the rate for those ages 50-59. In LMICs, that ratio is just 3.5. With each year of age, the age-specific mortality rate increases by an average of 12.6 percent in HICs versus 7.1 percent in LMICs. This pattern holds overall and separately for men's and women's mortality rates. It reflects some combination of variation across countries in age patterns of infection rates, fatality rates among those infected, and under-attribution of deaths to COVID-19. The findings highlight that experiences with COVID-19 in wealthy countries may not be generalizable to developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/701441593610141326/pdf/COVID-19-Age-Mortality-Curves-Are-Flatter-in-Developing-Countries.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schellekens,Philip & Sourrouille,Diego M., 2020. "COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9260, The World Bank.
    2. Jennifer Beam Dowd & Liliana Andriano & David M. Brazel & Valentina Rotondi & Per Block & Xuejie Ding & Melinda C. Mills, 2020. "Reply to Nepomuceno et al.: A renewed call for detailed social and demographic COVID-19 data from all countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(25), pages 13884-13885, June.
    3. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044.
    4. Joshua R. Goldstein & Ronald D. Lee, 2020. "Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(36), pages 22035-22041, September.
    5. Caitlin S. Brown & Martin Ravallion & Dominique van de Walle, 2020. "Can the World’s Poor Protect Themselves from the New Coronavirus?," NBER Working Papers 27200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jennifer Beam Dowd & Liliana Andriano & David M. Brazel & Valentina Rotondi & Per Block & Xuejie Ding & Yan Liu & Melinda C. Mills, 2020. "Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(18), pages 9696-9698, May.
    7. Selene Ghisolfi & Ingvild Almås & Justin Sandefur & Tillmann von Carnap & Jesse Heitner & Tessa Bold, 2020. "Predicted COVID-19 Fatality Rates Based on Age, Sex, Comorbidities, and Health System Capacity," Working Papers 535, Center for Global Development.
    8. Marília R. Nepomuceno & Enrique Acosta & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & José Manuel Aburto & Alain Gagnon & Cássio M. Turra, 2020. "Besides population age structure, health and other demographic factors can contribute to understanding the COVID-19 burden," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(25), pages 13881-13883, June.
    9. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Developing economies

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mălina Voicu & Mădălina Manoilă & Delia Bădoi & Simona Mihaiu & Alexandra Deliu, 2022. "Covid 19 in Romania: assessing prevalence, mortality and fatality by age and gender in the first 32 weeks of the pandemic," Journal of Community Positive Practices, Catalactica NGO, issue 4, pages 3-20.
    2. Lin Ma & Gil Shapira & Damien de Walque & Quy‐Toan Do & Jed Friedman & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2022. "The Intergenerational Mortality Trade‐Off Of Covid‐19 Lockdown Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1427-1468, August.
    3. Isaac Sasson, 2021. "Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(16), pages 379-396.
    4. Sabelo Nick Dlamini & Wisdom Mdumiseni Dlamini & Ibrahima Socé Fall, 2022. "Predicting COVID-19 Infections in Eswatini Using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Amrita Ahuja & Susan Athey & Arthur Baker & Eric Budish & Juan Camilo Castillo & Rachel Glennerster & Scott Duke Kominers & Michael Kremer & Jean Lee & Canice Prendergast & Christopher M. Snyder & Ale, 2021. "Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 331-335, May.
    6. Demombynes,Gabriel & De Walque,Damien B. C. M. & Gubbins,Paul Michael & Urdinola,Beatriz Piedad & Veillard,Jeremy Henri Maurice, 2021. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official DeathCounts and Excess Deaths," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9807, The World Bank.
    7. Nicole Mun Sim Lai, 2022. "Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 499-526.
    8. Godwin Attah Obande & Ahmad Ibrahim Bagudo & Suharni Mohamad & Zakuan Zainy Deris & Azian Harun & Chan Yean Yean & Ismail Aziah & Kirnpal Kaur Banga Singh, 2021. "Current State of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa: Lessons for Today and the Future," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Galanis, Giorgos & Georgiadis, Andreas, 2024. "Socioeconomic conditions and contagion dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with and without mitigation measures: Evidence from 185 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Shapiro, Vladimir, 2021. "COVID-19 Sex-Age Mortality Modeling - A Use Case of Risk-Based Vaccine Prioritization," SocArXiv 5c8bd, Center for Open Science.
    11. Ruchir Agarwal & Tristan Reed, 2022. "Financing vaccine equity: funding for day-zero of the next pandemic," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 833-850.
    12. Mihaela ZAMFIR & Ileana CIOBANU & Mihai Viorel ZAMFIR, 2021. "Vatra Luminoasa, age friendly study of intergenerational architecture in a Bucharest neighborhood," Smart Cities International Conference (SCIC) Proceedings, Smart-EDU Hub, Faculty of Public Administration, National University of Political Studies & Public Administration, vol. 9, pages 437-460, November.
    13. Yupeng Li & Kul Prasad Kapri, 2021. "Impact of Economic Factors and Policy Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demombynes,Gabriel & De Walque,Damien B. C. M. & Gubbins,Paul Michael & Urdinola,Beatriz Piedad & Veillard,Jeremy Henri Maurice, 2021. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official DeathCounts and Excess Deaths," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9807, The World Bank.
    2. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    3. Isaac K. Ofori & Mark K. Armah & Emmanuel E. Asmah, 2021. "Towards the Reversal of Poverty and Income Inequality Setbacks Due to COVID-19: The Role of Globalisation and Resource Allocation," Working Papers 21/043, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Giofré, Maela, 2021. "COVID-19 stringency measures and foreign investment: An early assessment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2021. "Death, demography and the denominator: Age-adjusted Influenza-18 mortality in Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    6. Ofori, Isaac K. & Osei, Dennis B. & Alagidede, Imhotep P., 2022. "Inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring the interaction between ICT diffusion, and financial development," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7).
    7. Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen & Johannes Seiler & Jürg Utzinger, 2022. "An index of access to essential infrastructure to identify where physical distancing is impossible," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    9. Orietta Nicolis & Jean Paul Maidana & Fabian Contreras & Danilo Leal, 2024. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability: A Clustering Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, February.
    10. González, Marta Ramos & Ureña, Antonio Partal & Fernández-Aguado, Pilar Gómez, 2023. "Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Quibria, M.G., 2020. "Poverty and Policy in the Developing World: Before and After the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 104240, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2020.
    12. Ofori, Isaac K. & Armah, Mark K. & Taale, Francis & Ofori, Pamela E., 2021. "Addressing the Severity and Intensity of Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Relevant is the ICT and Financial Development Pathway?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    13. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    14. Lingli Yu & Ling Yang, 2024. "News media in crisis: a sentiment and emotion analysis of US news articles on unemployment in the COVID-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Marinov, Eduard, 2020. "Новият Шок Covid 19 – Въздействие Върху Международната Търговия На Глобално И Национално Ниво [The new shock COVID 19 - impact on international trade on a global and national level]," MPRA Paper 110921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Osman Taylan & Abdulaziz S. Alkabaa & Mustafa Tahsin Yılmaz, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on G20 countries: analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    17. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    18. Abdoul’ Ganiou Mijiyawa & Djoulassi K. Oloufade, 2023. "Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 437-470, April.
    19. Francisco Ceballos & Manuel A. Hernandez & Cynthia Paz, 2021. "Short‐term impacts of COVID‐19 on food security and nutrition in rural Guatemala: Phone‐based farm household survey evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 477-494, May.
    20. Daud, Siti Nurazira Mohd & Ahmad, Abd Halim, 2023. "Financial inclusion, economic growth and the role of digital technology," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Law and Justice Institutions; Health Care Services Industry; Public Health Promotion; Leprosy; Communicable Diseases; Cholera; Disease Control&Prevention;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.