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The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Francesca Luppi

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Bruno Arpino

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze)

  • Alessandro Rosina

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

Abstract

Objective: This study offers a descriptive overview of changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 crisis in a sample of the young population (18–34) in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The data were collected between 27 March and 7 April 2020. Results: Our results show that fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries, but not in the same way. In Germany and France fertility plans changed moderately, with many people still planning or postponing their decision to have a child. In Italy, however, the proportion of abandoners is much higher than in the other countries, and the proportion of those deciding to postpone their plans is lower. Moreover, across countries the demographic characteristics of individuals appear to be associated with fertility plans in different ways. In Italy, abandoners are common among individuals younger than 30 and those without a tertiary education. In Germany, abandoners are slightly more prevalent in the regions most affected by COVID-19. In the United Kingdom, the individuals that most frequently abandoned their fertility plans are those who expect the crisis to have a dramatic negative effect on their future income. Finally, in France and Spain we do not observe a clear pattern of revision of fertility plans. Contribution: These results suggest that different mechanisms are at work, possibly due to the different economic, demographic, and policy pre-crisis background and post-crisis prospects. Low-fertility contexts in particular appear to be more at risk of a fertility loss due to the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Luppi & Bruno Arpino & Alessandro Rosina, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:43:y:2020:i:47
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2020.43.47
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Arpino, Bruno & Pasqualini, Marta & Bordone, Valeria & Solé-Auró, Aïda, 2020. "Indirect consequences of COVID-19 on people’s lives. Findings from an on-line survey in France, Italy and Spain," SocArXiv 4sfv9, Center for Open Science.
    3. Natalie Nitsche & D. Susie Lee, 2022. "Emotion and fertility in times of disaster: conceptualizing fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    5. Claudio Costanzo, 2022. "Robots, Jobs, and Optimal Fertility Timing," Working Papers ECARES 2022-36, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Yue Yin & Ye Jiang, 2023. "Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(4), pages 120-152, July.
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    8. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2022. "Dismissed and newly planned babies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study of the motivations behind changes in fertility plans and behaviors in Italy," SocArXiv qpwba, Center for Open Science.
    9. Anna Kurowska & Anna Matysiak & Beata Osiewalska, 2023. "Working from Home During Covid-19 Pandemic and Changes to Fertility Intentions Among Parents," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-31, December.
    10. Sobotka, Tomas & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza & Zeman, Kryštof & Nemeth, Laszlo & Jdanov, Dmitri, 2021. "Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series," SocArXiv mvy62, Center for Open Science.
    11. Bodnár, Katalin & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing," Occasional Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.
    12. Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & María T. Sanz, 2023. "Growing Pains: Can Family Policies Revert the Decline of Fertility in Spain?," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 269-281.
    13. Emery, Tom & Koops, Judith C., 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility behaviour and Intentions in the Republic of Moldova," SocArXiv fcqd9, Center for Open Science.
    14. Luca Maria Pesando & Alejandra Abufhele, 2022. "Declining Quantity and Quality of Births in Chile Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 20220081, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Nov 2022.
    15. Alessandra De Rose & Maria Felice Arezzo & Mario Amore & Alessandro Cuomo & Sergio De Filippis & Silvestro La Pia & Marta Pasqualini & Alessandro Pirani & Riccardo Torta & Andrea Fagiolini, 2023. "Vulnerabilities in Mental Health due to Covid-19 Pandemic: The Response of the Italian Physicians," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 539-556, August.
    16. Myunggu Jung & D. Susie Lee, 2023. "Subnational variations in births and marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(30), pages 867-882.
    17. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Regional trends in births during the COVID-19 crisis in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain," SocArXiv mnwh8, Center for Open Science.
    18. Lawrence M Berger & Giulia Ferrari & Marion Leturcq & Lidia Panico & Anne Solaz, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-28, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility plans; COVID-19; Europe; crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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