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Growing Pains: Can Family Policies Revert the Decline of Fertility in Spain?

Author

Listed:
  • Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel

    (Department of Sociology and Social Work, Public University of Navarre, Spain)

  • Vicente Díaz Gandasegui

    (Department of Social Analysis, University Carlos III of Madrid, Spain)

  • María T. Sanz

    (Department of Didactics of Mathematics, University of Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of fertility and family policies during the 2008–2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020–2060) to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well‐being to modify the recent decline in fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the employment and educational policies and work–life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & María T. Sanz, 2023. "Growing Pains: Can Family Policies Revert the Decline of Fertility in Spain?," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 269-281.
    • Handle: RePEc:cog:socinc:v11:y:2023:i:1:p:269-281
    DOI: 10.17645/si.v11i1.6141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & Maria T. Sanz García, 2019. "Family Policy Index: A Tool for Policy Makers to Increase the Effectiveness of Family Policies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 387-409, February.
    2. Alyce Raybould & Rebecca Sear, 2021. "Children of the (gender) revolution: A theoretical and empirical synthesis of how gendered division of labour influences fertility," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(2), pages 169-190, May.
    3. Gerda Neyer & Trude Lappegård & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 245-272, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques‐Antoine Gauthier & Vida Česnuitytė, 2023. "Family in Challenging Circumstances: Ways of Coping," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 210-213.

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