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The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent birth deficit in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Siddharth Chandra

    (Michigan State University)

  • Yan-Liang Yu

    (Michigan State University)

Abstract

Background: Recent research has documented fertility decline after the peak of pandemic-associated mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Yet the time interval between the mortality peak and the dip in fertility and its contributing mechanisms remains a line of debate. Objective: This study examines the inter-temporal association between pandemic-associated mortality and subsequent birth deficit in Japan in order to shed light on the current debate about the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on human fertility. Methods: Seasonally and trend-adjusted monthly data on deaths, births, and stillbirths in Japan are used to compute cross-correlations between deaths, births, and stillbirths. Results: The analysis revealed a negative and statistically significant association between deaths (𝑑) at time 𝑡 and births (𝑏) at time 𝑡+9 (𝑟𝑑𝑏(9)=−.397,𝑝

Suggested Citation

  • Siddharth Chandra & Yan-Liang Yu, 2015. "The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent birth deficit in Japan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(11), pages 313-326.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:33:y:2015:i:11
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siddharth Chandra, 2013. "Mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in Indonesia," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 185-193, July.
    2. Siddharth Chandra & Goran Kuljanin & Jennifer Wray, 2012. "Mortality From the Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919: The Case of India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 857-865, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Mortality
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Fertility
    3. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Fertility

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karlsson Martin & Matvieiev Mykhailo & Obrizan Maksym, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 637-675, June.
    2. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Chaturica Athukorala, 2020. "The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-20: An interpretative survey in the time of COVID-19," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Shichao Du & Chin-Han Chan, 2023. "Baby Boom or Baby Bust After the COVID-19 Onset in the United States? Evidence from an ARIMA Time-Series Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Nguyen Doan & Canh Phuc Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of a Pandemic: What Happened after SARS in 2003?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8687, CESifo.
    5. Joël Floris & Laurent Kaiser & Harald Mayr & Kaspar Staub & Ulrich Woitek, 2022. "Investigating survivorship bias: the case of the 1918 flu pandemic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(21), pages 2047-2052, December.
    6. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    7. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    8. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    9. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Chaturica Athukorala, 2020. "The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918–20: An interpretative survey in the time of COVID-19," CEH Discussion Papers 09, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    10. Gaddy, Hampton Gray & Gargiulo, Maria, 2024. "Can we estimate crisis death tolls by subtracting population estimates? A critical review and appraisal," SocArXiv nrpb3, Center for Open Science.
    11. Francesca Luppi & Bruno Arpino & Alessandro Rosina, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; fertility; influenza;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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