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The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK

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  • LUPPI, FRANCESCA
  • Arpino, Bruno
  • Rosina, Alessandro

    (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

Abstract

This study offers an overview on changes in fertility plan during the COVID-19 crisis of a representative sample of the young population (18-34) in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK. Data were collected between March 27 and April 7, 2020. Our results show that fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries, but not in the same way. In Germany and France fertility plans changed moderately, with many people still planning or postponing their decision to have a child during the 2020. In Italy, instead, the proportion of abandoners is much higher than in other countries, while comparatively it shows a lower proportion of those deciding to postpone their plans. Moreover, the demographic characteristics of the individuals seem to be associated with fertility plans in different ways across countries. In Italy, abandoners are common among individuals younger than 30 and those without a tertiary education. In Germany, abandoners are slightly more prevalent in the regions most affected by the COVID-19. In UK, fertility plans have been most frequently abandoned by individuals that expect the worse impact of the crisis on their future income. Finally, in France and Spain we did not observe a clear pattern for revision of fertility plans. These results suggest that different mechanisms are at work, due to the different economic, demographic and policy pre-crisis background and post-crisis prospects. Low-fertility contexts, in particular, appear to be more at risk of a fertility loss due to the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK," SocArXiv wr9jb, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:wr9jb
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/wr9jb
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua R. Goldstein & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Aiva Jasilioniene & Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2013. "Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(4), pages 85-104.
    2. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    3. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    4. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    5. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Chiara Ludovica Comolli & Alessandro Rosina, 2017. "The effect of the Great Recession on permanent childlessness in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(20), pages 635-668.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences

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    1. Emery, Tom & Koops, Judith C., 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility behaviour and Intentions in the Republic of Moldova," SocArXiv fcqd9, Center for Open Science.
    2. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2022. "Dismissed and newly planned babies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study of the motivations behind changes in fertility plans and behaviors in Italy," SocArXiv qpwba, Center for Open Science.
    3. Bodnár, Katalin & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing," Occasional Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.
    4. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    5. Lawrence M Berger & Giulia Ferrari & Marion Leturcq & Lidia Panico & Anne Solaz, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-28, March.
    6. Kazenin Konstantin, 2021. "Birth Rate in Russia in 2020: Regional Dynamics [Рождаемость В России В 2020 Г.: Региональная Динамика]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 3, pages 50-54, March.
    7. Jurić, Tado, 2021. "Google Trends as a Method to Predict New COVID-19 Cases and Socio-Psychological Consequences of the Pandemic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(forthcomi).
    8. Sobotka, Tomas & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza & Zeman, Kryštof & Nemeth, Laszlo & Jdanov, Dmitri, 2021. "Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series," SocArXiv mvy62, Center for Open Science.
    9. Kazenin Konstantin, 2021. "Рождаемость В России В 2020 Г.: Региональная Динамика," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 3, pages 50-54, March.
    10. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Regional trends in births during the COVID-19 crisis in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain," SocArXiv mnwh8, Center for Open Science.
    11. Arpino, Bruno & Pasqualini, Marta & Bordone, Valeria & Solé-Auró, Aïda, 2020. "Indirect consequences of COVID-19 on people’s lives. Findings from an on-line survey in France, Italy and Spain," SocArXiv 4sfv9, Center for Open Science.
    12. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2021. "Couples' paid work, state-level unemployment, and first births in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(38), pages 1149-1184.

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