IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v57y2020i3d10.1007_s13524-020-00871-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Letícia J. Marteleto

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Gilvan Guedes

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)

  • Raquel Z. Coutinho

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)

  • Abigail Weitzman

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

In late 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization classified the increase in congenital malformations associated with the Zika virus (ZIKV) as a public health emergency. The risk of ZIKV-related congenital syndrome poses a threat to reproductive outcomes that could result in declining numbers of live births and potentially fertility. Using monthly microdata on live births from the Brazilian Information System on Live Births (SINASC), this study examines live births and fertility trends amid the ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. Findings suggest a decline in live births that is stratified across educational and geographic lines, beginning approximately nine months after the link between ZIKV and microcephaly was publicly announced. Although declines in total fertility rates were small, fertility trends estimated by age and maternal education suggest important differences in how Zika might have impacted Brazil’s fertility structure. Further findings confirm the significant declines in live births in mid-2016 even when characteristics of the municipality are controlled for; these results highlight important nuances in the timing and magnitude of the decline. Combined, our findings illustrate the value of understanding how the risk of a health threat directed at fetuses has led to declines in live births and fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Letícia J. Marteleto & Gilvan Guedes & Raquel Z. Coutinho & Abigail Weitzman, 2020. "Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 843-872, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00871-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00871-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13524-020-00871-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-020-00871-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Lanjouw, Peter & Neri, Marcelo Côrtes, 2003. "A Robust Poverty Profile for Brazil Using Multiple Data Sources," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 57(1), January.
    2. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2009. "Fertility response to natural disasters : the case of three high mortality earthquakes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4883, The World Bank.
    3. David Lam & Suzanne Duryea, 1999. "Effects of Schooling on Fertility, Labor Supply, and Investments in Children, with Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(1), pages 160-192.
    4. Victor Agadjanian & Ndola Prata, 2002. "War, peace, and fertility in Angola," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 215-231, May.
    5. Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, 2004. "Uncertainty and the Second Space: Modern Birth Timing and the Dilemma of Education," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 351-373, December.
    6. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    7. Everton E. C. Lima & Kryštof Zeman & Tomáš Sobotka & Mathias Nathan & Ruben Castro, 2018. "The Emergence of Bimodal Fertility Profiles in Latin America," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 44(4), pages 723-743, December.
    8. Itaboraí, Nathalie Reis, 2015. "Las desigualdades de clase en el comportamiento reproductivo en el Brasil: democratización incompleta y paradojas de la fecundidad juvenil," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), June.
    9. Leticia Marteleto & Molly Dondero, 2013. "Maternal age at first birth and adolescent education in Brazil," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(28), pages 793-820.
    10. Joseph E. Potter & Carl P. Schmertmann & Renato M. Assunção & Suzana M. Cavenaghi, 2010. "Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 283-307, June.
    11. repec:nas:journl:v:115:y:2018:p:6177-6182 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Letícia Marteleto & Laetícia Souza, 2012. "The Changing Impact of Family Size on Adolescents’ Schooling: Assessing the Exogenous Variation in Fertility Using Twins in Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1453-1477, November.
    13. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Anders Skrondal, 2012. "Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata, 3rd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number mimus2, March.
    14. Letícia J. Marteleto & Abigail Weitzman & Raquel Zanatta Coutinho & Sandra Valongueiro Alves, 2017. "Women's Reproductive Intentions and Behaviors during the Zika Epidemic in Brazil," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(2), pages 199-227, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcos A. Rangel & Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2020. "Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1647-1680, October.
    2. Daniel Dench & Wenhui Li & Theodore Joyce & Howard Minkoff & Gretchen Wye, 2024. "Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    4. N. P. Hariram & K. B. Mekha & Vipinraj Suganthan & K. Sudhakar, 2023. "Sustainalism: An Integrated Socio-Economic-Environmental Model to Address Sustainable Development and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-37, July.
    5. Lara de Melo Barbosa Andrade & Gilvan Ramalho Guedes & Kenya Valeria Micaela de Souza Noronha & Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva & Jéferson Pereira Andrade & Albert Smith Feitosa Suassuna Martins, 2021. "Health-related vulnerability to climate extremes in homoclimatic zones of Amazonia and Northeast region of Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, November.
    6. Wenham, Clare & Abagaro, Camila & Arévalo, Amaral & Coast, Ernestina & Corrêa, Sonia & Cuéllar, Katherine & Leone, Tiziana & Valongueiro, Sandra, 2021. "Analysing the intersection between health emergencies and abortion during Zika in Brazil, El Salvador and Colombia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    7. Gby Atee & Aparajita Dasgupta & Sneha Lamba, 2024. "The Effect of COVID-19 on Fertility in India: Evidence from the National Family Health Survey," Working Papers 115, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    8. Alexandra-Mădălina Țăran & Lavinia Mustea & Sorana Vătavu & Oana-Ramona Lobonț & Magda-Mihaela Luca, 2022. "Challenges and Drawbacks of the EU Medical System Generated by the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Field of Health Systems’ Digitalization," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Sobotka, Tomas & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza & Zeman, Kryštof & Nemeth, Laszlo & Jdanov, Dmitri, 2021. "Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series," SocArXiv mvy62, Center for Open Science.
    10. Luca Maria Pesando & Alejandra Abufhele, 2022. "Declining Quantity and Quality of Births in Chile Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 20220081, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Nov 2022.
    11. Francesca Luppi & Bruno Arpino & Alessandro Rosina, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarah R. Hayford & Victor Agadjanian, 2019. "Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 573-594, April.
    2. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Marcos A. Rangel & Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2020. "Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1647-1680, October.
    4. Leticia Marteleto & Molly Dondero, 2013. "Maternal age at first birth and adolescent education in Brazil," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(28), pages 793-820.
    5. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J. & Lockwood, Ben, 2024. "Are environmental concerns deterring people from having children? Longitudinal evidence on births in the UK," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. José Henrique Costa Monteiro da Silva & Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima & Maria Coleta Ferreira Albino de Oliveira, 2022. "Educational pairings and fertility decline in Brazil: An analysis using cohort fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(6), pages 147-178.
    7. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Letícia Marteleto & Laetícia Souza, 2012. "The Changing Impact of Family Size on Adolescents’ Schooling: Assessing the Exogenous Variation in Fertility Using Twins in Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1453-1477, November.
    9. Wilde, Joshua & Chen, Wei & Lohmann, Sophie, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Future of US Fertility: What Can We Learn from Google?," SocArXiv 2bgqs, Center for Open Science.
    10. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    11. Jenna Nobles & Elizabeth Frankenberg & Duncan Thomas, 2014. "The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics after a Natural Disaster," NBER Working Papers 20448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Batyra, Ewa & Leone, Tiziana & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2022. "Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116627, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    14. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.
    15. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2017. "Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1179, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    16. Rangel, Marcos & Nobles, Jenna & Hamoudi, Amar, 2019. "Brazil's Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," SocArXiv fu8bp, Center for Open Science.
    17. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Bogdana Nosova & Rosario Turco & Massimiliano Giacalone & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    18. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    19. Ewa Batyra & Tiziana Leone & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. María Jesús Rodríguez-Gulías & David Rodeiro-Pazos & Sara Fernández-López & Manuel Ángel Nogueira-Moreiras, 2021. "The effect of regional resources on innovation: a firm-centered approach," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 760-791, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00871-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.