IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v48y2023i30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Subnational variations in births and marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Myunggu Jung

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • D. Susie Lee

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

Abstract

Background: It has been postulated that the COVID-19 pandemic will contribute to fertility decline, especially in low-fertility contexts. Little is known how the consequences of the pandemic differed at the subnational level. Objective: We investigated whether fertility declined beyond the first wave in early 2020 at both the national and the subnational levels in South Korea. We also examined marital rates, given that delayed marriage is a strong driver of low fertility in many East Asian countries. Methods: Based on monthly birth and marriage registration data for the period from January 2016 to December 2021, we quantified monthly general fertility and marital rates before and after the pandemic across the 17 regions in Korea. We used paired t-tests and interrupted time-series analysis to compare before and after fertility or marital rates. Results: Our analysis suggests that, at least until 2021, fertility rates did not decline beyond the pattern explained by the already declining fertility in Korea. For marriages, we observed a clear post-pandemic decline across regions. Subnational variations in the impact of the pandemic were larger for fertility than for marriage. Conclusions: Despite little evidence that the pandemic directly affected the number of births, the reduction in marriages is likely to have a significant impact on fertility in the coming years. Contribution: We present among the first examination of subnational-level variations in the impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Myunggu Jung & D. Susie Lee, 2023. "Subnational variations in births and marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(30), pages 867-882.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:48:y:2023:i:30
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol48/30/48-30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.30?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnstein Aassve & Nicolò Cavalli & Letizia Mencarini & Samuel Plach & Seth Sanders, 2021. "Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(36), pages 2105709118-, September.
    2. Byeongho Lim & Emma Kyoungseo Hong & Jinjin Mou & Inkyo Cheong, 2021. "COVID-19 in Korea: Success Based on Past Failure," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 41-62, Summer.
    3. Setsuya Fukuda, 2020. "Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 71-79.
    4. Moon Jung Kim & Soohyung Lee, 2021. "Can Stimulus Checks Boost an Economy Under Covid-19? Evidence from South Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Francesca Luppi & Bruno Arpino & Alessandro Rosina, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anna Kurowska & Anna Matysiak & Beata Osiewalska, 2023. "Working from Home During Covid-19 Pandemic and Changes to Fertility Intentions Among Parents," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-31, December.
    2. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Regional trends in births during the COVID-19 crisis in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain," SocArXiv mnwh8, Center for Open Science.
    3. Mooi-Reci, Irma & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Vera-Toscano, Esperanza & Wooden, Mark, 2023. "The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    4. Jung, Haeil & Kim, Jun Hyung & Hong, Gihyeon, 2023. "Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on single-person households in South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. NaHyun Lee & Bong-Seok Kim, 2023. "Differences of Host Country-Destination Image Assessment for International Students According to Risk Perception in COVID-19 Tourism," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.
    6. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Emery, Tom & Koops, Judith C., 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility behaviour and Intentions in the Republic of Moldova," SocArXiv fcqd9, Center for Open Science.
    8. Bernard, René, 2023. "Mental accounting and the marginal propensity to consume," Discussion Papers 13/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Sun Yeop Lee & Sun Kim & Woong-Han Kim & Jongho Heo, 2022. "Employment, Economic, and Sociodemographic Factors Associated with Changes in Smoking and Drinking Behaviors during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-14, February.
    10. Koka, Katerina & Rapallini, Chiara, 2023. "Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Daigo Nakata, 2023. "Emergency Economic Response and Evaluation in the COVID-19 Crisis," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 19(4), pages 1-25, November.
    12. Yue Yin & Ye Jiang, 2023. "Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(4), pages 120-152, July.
    13. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2021. "Couples' paid work, state-level unemployment, and first births in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(38), pages 1149-1184.
    14. Natalie Nitsche & Aiva Jasilioniene & Jessica Nisén & Peng Li & Maxi S. Kniffka & Jonas Schöley & Gunnar Andersson & Christos Bagavos & Ann Berrington & Ivan Čipin & Susana Clemente & Lars Dommermuth , 2022. "Pandemic babies? Fertility in the aftermath of the first COVID-19 wave across European regions," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2022. "Dismissed and newly planned babies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study of the motivations behind changes in fertility plans and behaviors in Italy," SocArXiv qpwba, Center for Open Science.
    16. Bodnár, Katalin & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing," Occasional Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.
    17. Hoyong Jung, 2023. "Can Universal Cash Transfer Save Newborns’ Birth Weight During the Pandemic?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, February.
    18. Luca Maria Pesando & Alejandra Abufhele, 2022. "Declining Quantity and Quality of Births in Chile Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 20220081, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Nov 2022.
    19. Sobotka, Tomas & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza & Zeman, Kryštof & Nemeth, Laszlo & Jdanov, Dmitri, 2021. "Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series," SocArXiv mvy62, Center for Open Science.
    20. Singh, Parvati & Gemmill, Alison & Bruckner, Tim-Allen, 2023. "Casino-based cash transfers and fertility among the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina: A time-series analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; marriage; COVID-19; Korea;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:48:y:2023:i:30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.