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Subnational variations in births and marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Myunggu Jung

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • D. Susie Lee

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

Abstract

Background: It has been postulated that the COVID-19 pandemic will contribute to fertility decline, especially in low-fertility contexts. Little is known how the consequences of the pandemic differed at the subnational level. Objective: We investigated whether fertility declined beyond the first wave in early 2020 at both the national and the subnational levels in South Korea. We also examined marital rates, given that delayed marriage is a strong driver of low fertility in many East Asian countries. Methods: Based on monthly birth and marriage registration data for the period from January 2016 to December 2021, we quantified monthly general fertility and marital rates before and after the pandemic across the 17 regions in Korea. We used paired t-tests and interrupted time-series analysis to compare before and after fertility or marital rates. Results: Our analysis suggests that, at least until 2021, fertility rates did not decline beyond the pattern explained by the already declining fertility in Korea. For marriages, we observed a clear post-pandemic decline across regions. Subnational variations in the impact of the pandemic were larger for fertility than for marriage. Conclusions: Despite little evidence that the pandemic directly affected the number of births, the reduction in marriages is likely to have a significant impact on fertility in the coming years. Contribution: We present among the first examination of subnational-level variations in the impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Myunggu Jung & D. Susie Lee, 2023. "Subnational variations in births and marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(30), pages 867-882.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:48:y:2023:i:30
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moon Jung Kim & Soohyung Lee, 2021. "Can Stimulus Checks Boost an Economy Under Covid-19? Evidence from South Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Arnstein Aassve & Nicolò Cavalli & Letizia Mencarini & Samuel Plach & Seth Sanders, 2021. "Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(36), pages 2105709118-, September.
    3. Byeongho Lim & Emma Kyoungseo Hong & Jinjin Mou & Inkyo Cheong, 2021. "COVID-19 in Korea: Success Based on Past Failure," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 41-62, Summer.
    4. Francesca Luppi & Bruno Arpino & Alessandro Rosina, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.
    5. Setsuya Fukuda, 2020. "Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 71-79.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; marriage; COVID-19; Korea;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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