IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/193184.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Differential responses in first birth behaviour to economic recession in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Lyons-Amos, Mark
  • Schoon, Ingrid

Abstract

Economic conditions have dramatic influences on fertility. This paper evaluates the effect of the 2008 ‘Great Recession’ in the UK on first birth rate, which is the fertility behaviour most susceptible to external economic conditions. The key aim of the study was to assess the effect of the recession on fertility by individual-level characteristics, enabling variation in responses to economic hardship to be observed. Data were from the nationally representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (UK-HLS). Cumulative transition models were used to model the probability of first birth for women between the ages of 17 and 30 in three UK birth cohorts. The effect of the recession was captured using direct measures (local unemployment rates and individual unemployment status) and a pre-/post-comparison, capturing indirect effects. In general, higher birth rates were observed among more disadvantaged women compared with advantaged groups. The effect of the recession was disaggregated by social strata; the overall effect was counter-cyclical although at a slower rate among disadvantaged women.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyons-Amos, Mark & Schoon, Ingrid, 2018. "Differential responses in first birth behaviour to economic recession in the United Kingdom," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 275-290.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:193184
    DOI: 10.1017/s0021932017000220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/193184/1/f-21798-full-text-Lyons-Amos-et_al-Responses-v3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1017/s0021932017000220?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gunnar Andersson, 2000. "The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 293-333, December.
    2. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    3. Jennifer A. Holland, 2012. "Home and Where the Heart Is: Marriage Timing and Joint Home Purchase [Où se trouve le cœur, là est la maison: Calendrier du mariage et achat conjoint d’un logement]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 65-89, February.
    4. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2007. "Cohort birth order, parity progression ratio and parity distribution trends in developed countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(11), pages 315-374.
    5. Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2002. "Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 233-262, September.
    6. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2014. "Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(23), pages 687-734.
    7. Schoon, Ingrid & Lyons-Amos, Mark, 2016. "Diverse pathways in becoming an adult: The role of structure, agency and context," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46, pages 11-20.
    8. Karel Neels & Zita Theunynck & Jonas Wood, 2013. "Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 58(1), pages 43-55, February.
    9. Joshua R. Goldstein & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Aiva Jasilioniene & Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2013. "Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(4), pages 85-104.
    10. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    11. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Mark Amos, 2015. "Changes in partnership patterns across the life course," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(6), pages 145-178.
    12. Cees H. Elzinga & Aart C. Liefbroer, 2007. "De-standardization of Family-Life Trajectories of Young Adults: A Cross-National Comparison Using Sequence Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 225-250, October.
    13. Witte, James C. & Wagner, Gert G., 1995. "Declining Fertility in East Germany After Unification: A Demographic Response to Socioeconomic Change," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 387-397.
    14. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Andres Vikat, 2004. "Women’s labor force attachment and childbearing in Finland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Andres Vikat, 2004. "Women’s Labor Force Attachment and Childbearing in Finland," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(8), pages 177-212.
    17. Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2005. "Economic uncertainty and fertility postponement: evidence from German panel data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2012. "Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(3), pages 311-327.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J. & Lockwood, Ben, 2024. "Are environmental concerns deterring people from having children? Longitudinal evidence on births in the UK," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    2. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Lockwood, Ben & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J., 2022. "Are Environmental Concerns Deterring People from Having Children?," IZA Discussion Papers 15620, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesca Fiori & Francesca Rinesi & Antonella Pinnelli & Sabrina Prati, 2013. "Economic Insecurity and the Fertility Intentions of Italian Women with One Child," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(3), pages 373-413, June.
    2. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    3. Susanne Fahlén & Livia Sz. Oláh, 2018. "Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(28), pages 795-834.
    4. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Schmitt, Christian, 2012. "A Cross-National Perspective on Unemployment and First Births," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 28(3), pages 303-335.
    6. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    7. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    8. Ilaria Zambon & Kostas Rontos & Cecilia Reynaud & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, February.
    9. Güngör Turan & Irma Gjana, 2015. "The Link Between Innovation Behaviors and Productivity Strategies of Enterprises in Albanian Economic Growth," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejes_v1_i.
    10. Barbara Hofmann & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Arne Uhlendorff, 2017. "Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 933-959, June.
    11. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(28), pages 835-852.
    12. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    13. Michaela R. Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction," Post-Print hal-02081826, HAL.
    15. Joshua R. Goldstein & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Aiva Jasilioniene & Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2013. "Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(4), pages 85-104.
    16. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    18. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    19. Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, 2017. "A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1211-1239, October.
    20. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:193184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.