IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v6y2002i10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Øystein Kravdal

    (Universitetet i Oslo)

Abstract

Continuous-time hazard models are estimated from register-based birth, migration, education and unemployment histories for the complete Norwegian population, linked with aggregate data for municipalities. The analysis covers the period 1992-98. First-birth rates are slightly higher among women who had been unemployed twelve months before than among others, whereas higher-order birth rates are slightly lower. Although men’s unemployment has a more pronounced negative effect, according to paternity rate models, the overall conclusion is that unemployment in Norway has had a negligible impact on fertility through individual-level effects. Aggregate-level effects are more important. Higher-order birth rates are lower in municipalities where men’s or women’s unemployment is high than elsewhere. All in all, the peak unemployment level of 6% experienced in 1993 is found to be associated with a reduction of about 0.08 in total fertility. The results accord well with economic theories for first and higher-order births that are based on the assumption that women are still the primary caretakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:10
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/10/6-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.10?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gigi Santow & Bracher, 2001. "Deferment of the First Birth and Fluctuating Fertility in Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 343-363, December.
    2. ûivind Anti Nilsen & Alf Erling Risa & Alf Torstensen, 2000. "Transitions from employment among young Norwegian workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    3. Tzannatos, Zafiris & Symons, James, 1989. "An Economic Approach to Fertility in Britain since 1860," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 121-138.
    4. Roed,K. & Zhang,T., 2000. "Labour market transitions and economic incentives," Memorandum 15/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    5. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
    6. De Cooman, Eric & Ermisch, John F & Joshi, Heather, 1985. "The Next Birth and the Labour Market: A Dynamic Model of Births in England and Wales," CEPR Discussion Papers 37, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kravdal,O., 2000. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Memorandum 42/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    3. Robert McNown & Cristobal Ridao-Cano, 2005. "A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 521-532.
    4. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    5. Silvia Meggiolaro, 2010. "The importance of intentions in the mechanism of reproductive behaviour formation," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(1), pages 107-125, March.
    6. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    7. Wen-Yi Chen, 2013. "Does Housing Cost Affect Birth Rates in Taiwan? The ADL Test for Threshold Co-integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 90-103, October.
    8. Andres Vikat, 2004. "Women’s Labor Force Attachment and Childbearing in Finland," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(8), pages 177-212.
    9. Mengni Chen & Chris J Lloyd & Paul S F Yip, 2018. "A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.
    10. Naz, Ghazala, 2002. "The Impact of a Cash Benefit Reform on Parents’ Labour Force Participation," Working Papers in Economics 12/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    11. Ariane Pailhé & Anne Solaz, 2012. "The influence of employment uncertainty on childbearing in France: A tempo or quantum effect?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(1), pages 1-40.
    12. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    13. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    14. Martin Dribe & Maria Stanfors, 2009. "Education, Work and Parenthood: Comparing the Experience of Young Men and Women in Sweden," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 32-42, March.
    15. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2015. "Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 45-87, January.
    16. Steven Pressman, 2009. "Keynes, Family Allowances and Post Keynesian Anti-Poverty Policy," LIS Working papers 525, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    17. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Luci Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "Avoir un enfant plus tard: Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Post-Print halshs-01245523, HAL.
    18. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    19. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2004. "Fertility Decisions in the FRG and GDR: An Analysis with Data from the German Fertility and Family Survey," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(11), pages 275-318.
    20. Hippolyte D'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "AVOIR UN ENFANT PLUS TARD Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298929, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; birth rate; unemployment; multilevel model; registry data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.