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The mid-twentieth century Baby Boom and the changing educational gradient in Belgian cohort fertility

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  • Jan Van Bavel

    (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

Abstract

Background: The historical transition towards low fertility in many Western countries was interrupted during the period around the 1950s and ‘60s, called the Baby Boom. This upturn in fertility was completely unanticipated. One of the reasons for expecting continued fertility decline rather than fertility recovery was the expansion of female participation in higher education. Objective: This research investigates how the recovery of fertility and declining ages at first birth observed during the Baby Boom era can be reconciled with the expansion of female participation in education. How did the pre-existing negative educational gradient in fertility evolve in the cohorts that produced the Baby Boom? Methods: Using Belgian 1981 Census data, I estimate retrospective measures of cohort fertility. Potential sources of bias in the retrospective data are discussed. Trends in timing and quantum components are charted by women’s levels of educational attainment for cohorts born between 1901 and 1940. A counterfactual simulation is used to delineate the role played by the changing educational gradient in completed fertility. Results: The recovery of fertility was pervasive in Belgium, but there was a clear convergence between educational groups in terms of the quantum of fertility. Both low and high parity births increased: childlessness declined particularly among the highly educated while the share of women with three or more births went up in all educational groups, but most sharply among the highly educated. The educational gradient in completed fertility was strongly reduced. Without this shift, the recovery of completed fertility would have been about 25% less than its actual magnitude. The educational gradient for age at first birth remained stable: ages at first childbirth declined across all levels of educational attainment. Conclusions: Convergence in the quantum of fertility across educational groups suggests a major weakening of the role incompatibility between obtaining a degree in higher education on the one hand and subsequently getting married and having children on the other hand. Declining ages at first marriage and childbirth indicate that this period was generally conducive to family formation. The reduction in the educational gradient was a crucial ingredient of the emergence of today’s fertility patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Van Bavel, 2014. "The mid-twentieth century Baby Boom and the changing educational gradient in Belgian cohort fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(33), pages 925-962.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:30:y:2014:i:33
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.33
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    2. Glenn Sandström, 2017. "A reversal of the socioeconomic gradient of nuptiality during the Swedish mid-20th-century baby boom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(50), pages 1625-1658.
    3. Alícia Adserà, 2017. "Education and fertility in the context of rising inequality," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 063-94.
    4. Zuzanna Brzozowska, 2015. "Intergenerational educational mobility and completed fertility," IBS Working Papers 1/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    5. Michaela Potančoková & Guillaume Marois, 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 141-166.
    6. Ann Berrington & Juliet Stone & Eva Beaujouan, 2015. "Educational differences in timing and quantum of childbearing in Britain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(26), pages 733-764.
    7. Jianlin Niu & Yaqiang Qi, 2020. "The educational differential in fertility in transitional China: Temporal and regional variation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(22), pages 657-688.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; contraceptive use; education; Belgium; baby boom; socioeconomic status;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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