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Nonlinear Error Correction: The Case Of Money Demand In The United Kingdom (1878–2000)

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  • ESCRIBANO, ALVARO

Abstract

This paper explores single-equation nonlinear error correction (NEC) models with linear and nonlinear cointegrated variables. Within the class of semiparametric NEC models, we use smoothing splines. Within the class of parametric models, we discuss the interesting properties of cubic polynomial NEC models and we show how they can be used to identify unknown threshold points in asymmetric models and to check the stability properties of the long-run equilibrium. A new class of rational polynomial NEC models is also introduced. We found multiple long-run money demand equilibria. The stability observed in the money-demand parameter estimates during more than a century, 1878 to 2000, is remarkable.

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  • Escribano, Alvaro, 2004. "Nonlinear Error Correction: The Case Of Money Demand In The United Kingdom (1878–2000)," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 76-116, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:8:y:2004:i:01:p:76-116_03
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    Cited by:

    1. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    2. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber, 2013. "Australasian money demand stability: application of structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1011-1025, March.
    3. Theis Lange, 2009. "First and second order non-linear cointegration models," CREATES Research Papers 2009-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Sokbae Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017. "Correction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 883-883, April.
    5. Escribano, Alvaro & Peña, Daniel & Ruiz, Esther, 2021. "30 years of cointegration and dynamic factor models forecasting and its future with big data: Editorial," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1333-1337.
    6. Stewart, Hayden & Don, P. Blayney, 2011. "Retail Dairy Prices Fluctuate with the Farm Value of Milk," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 201-217, September.
    7. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 628-651, December.
    8. William Hahn & Hayden Stewart & Donald P. Blayney & Christopher G. Davis, 2016. "Modeling price transmission between farm and retail prices: a soft switches approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 193-203, March.
    9. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
    10. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2009. "Nonlinearities In The Dynamics Of The Euro Area Demand For M1," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jiang, Chun & Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity and risk premium convergence in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 204-208.
    13. Von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2017. "The analysis of market integration and price transmission – results and implications in an African context," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 56(2), March.
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Chang, Tsangyao & Yin, Kedong, 2014. "Monetary convergence in East Asian countries relative to China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 228-237.
    15. Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2017. "The analysis of market integration and price transmission – results and implications in an African context," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 83-96, April.
    16. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lynda Atil & Hocine Fellag & Ana E. Sipols & M. T. Santos-Martín & Clara Simón Blas, 2024. "Non-linear Cointegration Test, Based on Record Counting Statistic," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2205-2230, October.
    18. Ana Bela Nunes & Miguel St. Aubyn & Nuno Valério & Rita Martins Sousa, 2018. "Determinants of the income velocity of money in Portugal: 1891–1998," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(2), pages 99-115, July.
    19. Alfred A. Haug & Julie Tam, 2007. "A Closer Look At Long‐Run U.S. Money Demand: Linear Or Nonlinear Error‐Correction With M0, M1, Or M2?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(2), pages 363-376, April.
    20. Escribano, Álvaro & Wang, Dandan, 2021. "Mixed random forest, cointegration, and forecasting gasoline prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1442-1462.
    21. Zhou, Xinquan & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Gohin, Alexandre & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Debie, Philippe, 2023. "Microstructure and high-frequency price discovery in the soybean complex," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).

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