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Determinants of the income velocity of money in Portugal: 1891–1998

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Bela Nunes

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Miguel St. Aubyn

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Nuno Valério

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Rita Martins Sousa

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

This paper performs a long-run time series analysis of the behaviour of the income velocity of money in Portugal between 1891 and 1998 by assessing the importance of both macroeconomic and institutional factors and looking for particularities in the Portuguese case. We estimate two cointegration vectors for the income velocity of money, macroeconomic variables and institutional variables. It is apparent that one of these vectors reflects the relationship between income velocity and macroeconomic variables, while the other reflects the relationship between income velocity and institutional variables. Moreover, a regression analysis reveals that the usual U-shaped pattern is displayed with a relatively late inflection point located around 1970, which is consistent with the Spanish case. It is further noted that this is a feature of countries with a late economic and institutional development process.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Bela Nunes & Miguel St. Aubyn & Nuno Valério & Rita Martins Sousa, 2018. "Determinants of the income velocity of money in Portugal: 1891–1998," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(2), pages 99-115, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:17:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10258-017-0141-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-017-0141-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bordo, Michael David & Jonung, Lars, 1981. "The Long Run Behavior of the Income Velocity of Money in Five Advanced Countries, 1870-1975: An Institutional Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(1), pages 96-116, January.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    3. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    4. Paulo Soares Esteves, 1993. "Portuguese Prices Before 1947: Inconsistency Between the Observed Cost of Living Index and the GDP Price Estimation of Nunes, Mata and Valério (1989)," Working Papers w199319, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Siklos, Pierre L, 1993. "Income Velocity and Institutional Change: Some New Time Series Evidence, 1870-1986," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 377-392, August.
    6. Bordo, Michael D & Jonung, Lars & Siklos, Pierre L, 1997. "Institutional Change and the Velocity of Money: A Century of Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 710-724, October.
    7. repec:bla:scandj:v:80:y:1978:i:2:p:216-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Escribano, Alvaro, 2004. "Nonlinear Error Correction: The Case Of Money Demand In The United Kingdom (1878–2000)," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 76-116, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2021. "Money and inflation in inflation-targeting regimes – new evidence from time–frequency analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 17-44, January.
    2. Nandini Sud, 2024. "Is money velocity pro-cyclical? The case of India," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 13(1), pages 1-25, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Velocity of money; Portugal; Cointegration; Institutional determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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