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Weather effects on European agricultural output, 1850–1913

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  • Solomou, Solomos
  • Wu, Weike

Abstract

This article compares the effects of weather shocks on agricultural production in Britain, France and Germany during the late nineteenth century. Using semi-parametric models to estimate the non-linear agro-weather relationship we find that weather shocks explain between one third to two thirds of variations in agricultural production. Given the large size of the agricultural sector during this period, the high variance of agricultural production and the cyclical nature of weather shocks, the agro-weather relationship transmitted large effects on macroeconomic fluctuations over much of the period.

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  • Solomou, Solomos & Wu, Weike, 1999. "Weather effects on European agricultural output, 1850–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:ereveh:v:3:y:1999:i:03:p:351-373_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
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    Cited by:

    1. Piet Rietveld & Erhan Demirel & Jos van Ommeren, 2011. "Coping with uncertainty in the inland navigation market: the impact of climate change," ERSA conference papers ersa11p85, European Regional Science Association.
    2. François Facchini & Mickael Melki, 2014. "Political Ideology And Economic Growth: Evidence From The French Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 1408-1426, October.
    3. Mirzabaev, Alisher & Tsegai, Daniel W., 2012. "Effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia," Discussion Papers 140769, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iatsh0to2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iatsh0to2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chinnadurai Kathiravan & Murugesan Selvam & Desti Kannaiah & Kasilingam Lingaraja & Vadivel Thanikachalam, 2019. "On the relationship between weather and Agricultural Commodity Index in India: a study with reference to Dhaanya of NCDEX," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 667-683, March.
    7. David Stead, 2004. "Risk and risk management in English agriculture, c. 1750–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 334-361, May.
    8. Joseph Davis & Vanguard Group; Christopher Hanes, 2004. "Primary Sector Shocks and Early American Industrialization," 2004 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Durante, Ruben, 2009. "Risk, Cooperation and the Economic Origins of Social Trust: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 25887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2020. "The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way," NBER Working Papers 26929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Carlo Medici, 2024. "Closing Ranks: Organized Labor and Immigration," CESifo Working Paper Series 11437, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • N54 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Europe: 1913-

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