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The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile

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  • Rodrigo Fuentes S
  • Fabián Gredig U.

Abstract

To estimate the neutral real interest rate for Chile, we use a variety of methods that can be classified into three categories: those derived from economic theory, the neutral rate implicit in financial assets, and statistical procedures using macroeconomic data. We conclude that the neutral rate is not constant over time, but it is closely related with—though not equivalent to—the potential GDP growth rate. The application of the different methods yields fairly similar results. The neutral real interest rate for Chile seems to be in the range from 2.1% to 3.5%, with a median of 2.8% taking data of the fourth quarter of 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Fuentes S & Fabián Gredig U., 2008. "The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 47-58, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:11:y:2008:i:2:p:47-58
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    2. Gómez, Marcos & Medina, Juan Pablo & Valenzuela, Gonzalo, 2019. "Unveiling the objectives of central banks: Tales of four Latin American countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 81-100.
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    4. Medina, Juan Pablo & Toni, Emiliano & Valdes, Rodrigo, 2023. "The Art and Science of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Chile," MPRA Paper 117198, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2023.
    5. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
    6. Castañeda, Pablo & Castro, Rubén & Fajnzylber, Eduardo & Medina, Juan Pablo & Villatoro, Félix, 2021. "Saving for the future: Evaluating the sustainability and design of Pension Reserve Funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2016. "Calvo Wages Vs. Search Frictions: a Horse Race in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 778, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2015. "Domestic Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 6, pages 159-222, Central Bank of Chile.

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