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Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment

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  • Enrico Sergio Levrero

Abstract

By focusing on the literature on the estimates of the natural rate of interest, this paper critically analyses the modern practice of identifying the benchmark rate of monetary policy with an equilibrium or neutral interest rate reflecting “fundamental forces” unaffected by monetary factors. After briefly mentioning the determinants of the natural rate of interest in the New Keynesian models, the paper discusses the different notions of it that we find in these models and the problems encountered when the natural rate is estimated. It states that these problems are not only related to the difficulties in distinguishing the kind and persistency of economic shocks, but pertain to theory, namely to model specification and the alleged independence of the average or normal interest rate from monetary policy. Following Keynes’s suggestion regarding the monetary nature of interest rates, some final remarks will be advanced on their effects on prices and income distribution as well as on the objectives and stance of monetary policies

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  • Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:ijpoec:v:50:y:2021:i:1:p:5-27
    DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2021.1894829
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    3. Sergio Cesaratto, 2022. "Le frontiere della politica monetaria: aspetti didattici, teorici, di politica economica. Un review article (The frontiers of monetary policy: didactic, theoretical, economic policy aspects. A review ," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 75(299), pages 353-373.
    4. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    5. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    6. Sheng Zhu & Ella Kavanagh & Jun Gao, 2024. "The natural real rate of interest and monetary policy: New evidence for the US," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3023-3039, July.
    7. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Marc Lavoie & Mario Seccareccia, 2019. "Macroeconomics and natural rates: some reflections on Pasinetti’s fair rate of interest," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(2), pages 139-165, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian

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