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La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Enrique López Enciso
  • Martha Misas Arango
  • Juana Tellez Corredor

Abstract

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de mediano plazo" como una variable no observada que cambia en el tiempo. Tal estimación se realiza mediante un filtro de Kalman que estima simultáneamente la TIN y la brecha del producto para la economía colombiana. Se sugiere que la política monetaria fue contraccionista en 1998 y 1999, y relativamente expansiva en los años recientes, aún cuando los resultados no son tan claros cuando se trabaja con los promedios móviles de la TIN. La brecha del producto ha sido positiva en 2003 y 2004, confirmando los resultados de otros trabajos en el área."

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3088, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003088
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    Cited by:

    1. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 69, pages 9-39, Julio-Dic.
    2. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
    3. Ana María Iregui B. & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2009. "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," Borradores de Economia 547, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Jorge Enrique Restrepo Londono, 1998. "Reglas monetarias en una economía pequena y abierta," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 17(33), pages 61-84, July.
    5. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Luis E. Rojas & Brayan Rojas, 2011. "Estimations of the Natural Rate of Interest in Colombia," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 33-75, January-J.
    6. Christian Bustamante & Luis E. Rojas, 2012. "Constant-Interest-Rate Projections and Its Indicator Properties," Borradores de Economia 696, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Rhenals M., Remberto & Saldarriaga, Juan Pablo, 2008. "Una regla de Taylor óptima para Colombia, 1991-2006," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, November.
    8. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa natural de interés; variables no observadas; producto potencial; filtro de Kalman;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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