IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/448.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Fuentes
  • Fabián Gredig

Abstract

In this paper we use a set of methods to estimate the neutral interest rate for Chile (NRIR). We group the methods into three categories: methods derived from pure economic theory, the NRIR implicit in the price of financial assets, and the rate estimated from a statistical model using macroeconomic data. We learnt that the neutral interest rate is not a time invariant variable. It is closely related to the potential growth of the economy (but it is not equal to the growth rate of the trended output). The application of all methods yields very similar results. The NRIR would be in a range between 2% and 3.6%, with a median equal to 2.8% with data up to the fourth quarter of 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 448, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:448
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_448.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    2. Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2004. "The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: a review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 641-660, July.
    3. Garnier, Julien & Wilhelmsen, Björn-Roger, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation," Working Paper Series 546, European Central Bank.
    4. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
    5. Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2005/077, International Monetary Fund.
    6. César Calderón M. & Francisco Gallego Y., 2002. "La Tasa de Interés Real Neutral en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 65-72, August.
    7. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ilyas Siklar & Umit Yildiz & Sinan Cakan, 2016. "The Time - Varying Natural Rate of Interest and Its Fundamental Determinants: Time Series Evidence from Turkey," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 390-400, December.
    2. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    4. Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2020. "A General Characterization of the Capital Cost and the Natural Interest Rate: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 524, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Anthony J Evans, 2020. "The natural rate of interest: An estimate for the United Kingdom," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 24-35, February.
    6. Harding, Don & Negara, Siwage, 2008. "Estimating baseline real business cycle models of the Australian economy," MPRA Paper 33556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dmitry Kreptsev & Alexey Porshakov & Sergey Seleznev & Andrey Sinyakov, 2016. "The equilibrium interest rate: a measurement for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps13, Bank of Russia.
    8. Mr. Donal McGettigan & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Mr. Jean F Noah Ndela Ntsama & Mr. Francois Painchaud & Mr. Haonan Qu & Mr. Chad Steinberg, 2013. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Taming the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2013/096, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.
    10. J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2008. "La tasa de interés real neutral: definiciones y videncia para economías latinoamericanas," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 135-144, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    11. Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodrigo Fuentes S & Fabián Gredig U., 2008. "The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 47-58, August.
    2. Philip Arestis & Georgios E Chortareas, 2008. "Atheoretical and Theory-Based Approaches to the Natural Equilibrium Real Interest Rate," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 390-405.
    3. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    4. Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Fethi Oğunc & Inci Batmaz, 2009. "Estimating the neutral real interest rate in an emerging market economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 683-693.
    7. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Working papers 157, Banque de France.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Horvath, Roman, 2006. "Real-Time Time-Varying Equilibrium Interest Rates: Evidence on the Czech Republic," MPRA Paper 845, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0286 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
    13. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jarkko Turunen, 2015. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2015/135, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    15. Dmitry Chervyakov & Philipp König, 2017. "The Natural Rate of Interest II: Empirical Overview," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 109, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. repec:zbw:rwirep:0343 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty?: The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 972, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0166 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Jens Klose, 2011. "Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited – An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Function," Ruhr Economic Papers 0286, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    21. J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig, 2008. "La tasa de interés neutral: estimaciones para Chile," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 202-220, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    22. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.
    23. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    24. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007.
    25. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 0343, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alvaro Castillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.