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Wie sieht der Erholungskurs der Weltwirtschaft aus? Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Umfrage bei Wirtschaftsexpert*innen

Author

Listed:
  • Dorine Boumans
  • Anna Pauliina Sandqvist
  • Stefan Sauer

Abstract

Zu den kurz- und langfristigen Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft hat das ifo Institut im August 950 Ökonom*innen in 110 Ländern befragt. Die von den Expert*innen für nahezu alle Länder erwarteten deutlich negativen Wachstumsraten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Jahr 2020 zusammengenommen würden dabei einen Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung um schätzungsweise 4,4% ergeben. Die Erholungsphase dürfte den Ergebnissen zufolge nur langsam vonstattengehen und sich vielerorts bis ins Jahr 2022 oder sogar noch länger ziehen, bevor das Vorkrisenniveau wieder erreicht ist. Zudem wird angenommen, dass auch auf lange Sicht die potenzielle Wirtschaftsleistung negativ durch die Coronakrise beeinflusst wird. Als wirksamste politische Maßnahmen zur Unterstützung der Wirtschaft werden von den Befragungsteilnehmer*innen Liquiditätshilfen für kleine und mittelständische Unternehmen sowie Verbesserungen der Gesundheitssysteme eingestuft. Darüber hinaus wird der Einsatz von Kurzarbeit insbesondere von Expert*innen aus Ländern, in denen dieses wirtschaftspolitische Instrument zum Einsatz kommt, als sehr geeignet angesehen.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorine Boumans & Anna Pauliina Sandqvist & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Wie sieht der Erholungskurs der Weltwirtschaft aus? Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Umfrage bei Wirtschaftsexpert*innen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(10), pages 62-67, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:10:p:62-67
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dorine Boumans & Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Covid-19: The World Economy Needs a Lifeline – But Which One?," EconPol Policy Brief 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Boumans Dorine & Garnitz Johanna, 2017. "Ifo World Economic Survey Database – An International Economic Expert Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 71-80, February.
    3. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weltwirtschaft; Internationale Konjunktur; Internationale Wirtschaft;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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