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Mediendaten für die Konjunkturanalyse

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  • Beckmann, Joscha
  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Erwartungen von Konsumenten und Unternehmen sowie deren Optimismus oder Pessimismus können Konsum- und Investitionsentscheidungen beeinflussen und stark auf die Konjunktur wirken. Sie werden oftmals basierend auf Umfragen oder Finanzmarktpreisen gemessen. Für die deutsche Wirtschaft liefern Unternehmensbefragungen des ifo-Instituts wichtige Indikationen für den konjunkturellen Verlauf. Angesichts der umfangreichen Berichterstattung zu ökonomisch relevanten Themen in Zeitungen und sozialen Medien stellt sich die Frage, inwieweit die dortigen Informationen als zusätzliche Indikatoren für die Konjunktur in Deutschland dienen können. Im realwirtschaftlichen Kontext könnten täglich verfügbare Stimmungsindikatoren basierend auf der Berichterstattung in Medien im Vergleich zu den monatlichen Umfragen frühere Anhaltspunkte liefern. Zudem könnten die Erwartungen von Unternehmen durch die Berichterstattung beeinflusst werden. Im Folgenden wird der Zusammenhang zwischen Medienberichterstattung und den Umfragedaten empirisch untersucht.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2023. "Mediendaten für die Konjunkturanalyse," Kiel Insight 2023.11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:281055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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