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Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität

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  • Robert Lehmann
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Das ifo Institut hat in den vergangenen Jahren die Zuwachsrate der Stundenproduktivität überschätzt. Der wesentliche Grund hierfür sind zu pessimistische Erwerbstätigenprognosen. Mögliche Erklärungsansätze sind strukturelle, von der Konjunktur unabhängige Veränderungen in der deutschen Volkswirtschaft, die in den ökonometrischen Konjunktur- bzw. Prognosemodellen nicht oder nur unzureichend berücksichtigt wurden. Die möglichen Erklärungsansätze dürften auch für andere Prognoseinstitutionen gelten, da auch die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, der Sachverständigenrat und die Europäische Kommission systematisch zu hohe Produktivitätsprognosen abgaben.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 57-61, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:57-61
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hermann Gartner & Sabine Klinger, 2010. "Verbesserte Institutionen für den Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 90(11), pages 728-734, November.
    2. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Steffen Henzel & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer und der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(15), pages 35-40, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2016–2018: Robuste deutsche Konjunktur vor einem Jahr ungewisser internationaler Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Jochen Güntner & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif & Ra, 2018. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2018: Gewitterwolken am deutschen Konjunkturhimmel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(12), pages 33-87, June.
    3. Niels Gillmann & Robert Lehmann & Jannik A. Nauerth & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg & Michael Weber & Jannik André Nauerth, 2019. "Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 106, July.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & S. Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & F, 2017. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017/2018: Deutsche Wirtschaft stark und stabil," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(12), pages 30-83, June.
    5. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017–2019: Deutsche Wirtschaft auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    6. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Anna-Pauliina, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur ohne Schwung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(12), pages 25-78, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Produktivität; Prognoseverfahren; Wirtschaftsprognose;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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