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Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer

Author

Listed:
  • Niels Gillmann
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Jannik A. Nauerth
  • Joachim Ragnitz
  • Julia Sonnenburg
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

Gutachten im Auftrag der Bertelsmann Stiftung In der vorliegenden Studie wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der deutschen Bundesländer vor dem Hintergrund zu erwartender Trends, etwa im Hinblick auf die Produktivitäts- und Demographieentwicklung, bis ins Jahr 2035 projiziert. Ausgehend von einem Basisszenario werden vier Alternativen modelliert, in denen bestimmte Zielvorstellungen für den Lebensstandard (Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner) und die Arbeitsproduktivität (Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Erwerbstätigen) vorgegeben werden. Diese dienen dazu, mögliche wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen abzuleiten. Im Basisszenario wird das Wirtschaftswachstum (Potenzialwachstum) im Projektionszeitraum im Vergleich zur jüngeren Vergangenheit spürbar abnehmen: Das Wachstum des realen BIP wird demnach auf rund 0,6% im Jahr 2035 fallen und sich somit gegenüber dem heutigen Stand mehr als halbieren. Auch der Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsproduktivität werden zukünftig langsamer wachsen als bisher. Wesentlicher Treiber dabei ist der sich verstärkende demographische Wandel, der dazu führt, dass diese Entwicklungen besonders zum Ende des Projektionszeitraums immer deutlicher zutage treten. Besonders stark dürften strukturschwache Bundesländer wie Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, das Saarland oder Sachsen-Anhalt betroffen sein. Aufgrund der schwierigen demographischen Rahmenbedingungen dürfte das Wirtschaftswachstum in diesen drei Bundesländern zum Ende des Projektionszeitraums hin sogar negativ ausfallen. Dem gegenüber stehen strukturstarke Bundesländer wie Baden-Württemberg, Bayern oder die Stadtstaaten Berlin und Hamburg; diese vier Bundesländer dürften in den kommenden 20 Jahren wohl das höchste Wirtschaftswachstum (von rund 1,1% im Durchschnitt) aufweisen.

Suggested Citation

  • Niels Gillmann & Robert Lehmann & Jannik A. Nauerth & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg & Michael Weber, 2019. "Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 84, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodrs:84
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joachim Ragnitz, 2018. "Keine Kinder = keine Enkel: Zur Langfristigkeit demographischer Entwicklungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 25(04), pages 28-33, August.
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    7. Joachim Ragnitz, 2016. "Eine wirtschaftspolitische Agenda für die ostdeutschen Länder," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(04), pages 18-28, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joachim Ragnitz, 2020. "Wie behauptet sich Ostdeutschland in der Krise?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 27(06), pages 12-15, December.
    2. Joachim Ragnitz, 2020. "Zunehmend mehr ausländische Beschäftigte in Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 27(01), pages 25-28, February.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Felix Rösel & Marcel Thum & Christian Hirte & Wolfgang Tiefensee & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Philipp Fink & Martin Hennicke & Heinrich Tiemann, 2019. "Der Graben zwischen Ost und West – welche Politik hilft gegen Ungleichheit?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(16), pages 03-18, August.
    4. David Bauer & Joachim Ragnitz, 2020. "Strukturelle Anpassungserfordernisse im sächsischen Landeshaushalt? Nur durch personelle Einsparungen lässt sich ein Defizit verhindern," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 27(04), pages 15-20, August.
    5. David Bauer & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg, 2020. "Development of the Saxon Budget – an Calculation until the Year 2030," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 85, October.
    6. Joachim Ragnitz, 2019. "Schlechter als erwartet, besser als gedacht: Die wirtschaftliche Situation in Ostdeutschland 30 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 26(05), pages 03-08, October.

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