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Auf Sand gebaut: Das strukturelle Defizit im Auf und Ab der Konjunktur

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  • Christian Breuer
  • Thiess Büttner

Abstract

Die sprunghafte Verschlechterung der Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen, von einem konjunkturbereinigt nahezu ausgeglichenen Haushalt im Jahr 2007 zu einem für 2010 geschätzten konjunkturbereinigten Defizit von 4,5%, wirft die Frage nach dem Aussagegehalt des so genannten strukturellen Defizits auf. Für den Zeitraum 1996–2009 zeigt sich ein deutlicher Zusammenhang zwischen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung und dem mit Standardverfahren ermittelten strukturellen Defizit. Zwar kann dieser Zusammenhang teilweise durch steuerpolitische Änderungen erklärt werden. Dennoch legt die Entwicklung den Verdacht nahe, dass das strukturelle Defizit in konjunkturellen Schwächephasen überschätzt, in Aufschwungsphasen aber unterschätzt wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Breuer & Thiess Büttner, 2010. "Auf Sand gebaut: Das strukturelle Defizit im Auf und Ab der Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(11), pages 28-31, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:11:p:28-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thiess Büttner & Anita Dehne & Gebhard Flaig & Oliver Hülsewig & Peter Winker, 2006. "Calculation of GDP elasticities of public expenditure and revenue for forecasting purposes and a discussion of their volatility: Study commissioned by the Bundesministerium der Finanzen (06/05)," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 28, October.
    2. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Breuer, 2012. "Strukturelle Konsolidierung ohne Finanzpolitik – Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom Mai 2012," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 38-43, May.
    2. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2010: Deutschland im Aufschwung – Wirtschaftspolitik vor wichtigen Entscheidungen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(20), pages 03-61, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Haushaltsdefizit; Öffentlicher Haushalt; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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