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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2006: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen und diskutiert die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit. Im Jahr 2006 ist die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vom ifo Institut von der Grundtendenz her zutreffend prognostiziert worden. Als eines der ersten Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute hatte das ifo Institut im Dezember 2005 die Wachstumsrate der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion für das Jahr 2006 deutlich nach oben angehoben. Wie vom ifo Institut erwartet worden war, ist es 2006 im konjunkturellen Verlauf zu einer kräftigen Zunahme der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion gekommen; auch die Tempobeschleunigung in der Jahresdurchschnittsbetrachtung wurde zutreffend prognostiziert, wenngleich auch nicht in ihrem exakten Ausmaß. Trotz der optimistischen Grundeinschätzung der deutschen Konjunktur, die auf den schon damals guten Ergebnissen der ifo Unternehmensbefragungen basierte, ist die Dynamik des Aufschwungs und auch die positive Arbeitsmarktentwicklung unterschätzt worden. Exakt wurde dagegen der jahresdurchschnittliche Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise prognostiziert.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2006: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:02:p:23-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    2. Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q I), pages 2-21.
    3. Nicolas Carnot & Vincent Koen & Bruno Tissot, 2005. "Economic Forecasting," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-00581-5, December.
    4. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Anita Dehne & Andrea Gebauer & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Erich Langmantel & Wolfgang Meister & Monika Ruschinski & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2006: deutsche Wirtschaft im Aufschwung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(24), pages 18-54, December.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Prognoseverfahren; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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