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Vor der Talsohle

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Wolfgang Meister

Abstract

Am 19. Dezember hat das ifo Institut im Rahmen seines vorweihnachtlichen Pressegesprächs seine Prognose für das Jahr 2002 vorgestellt. Die Konjunktur in Deutschland dürfte - nach schwacher Entwicklung im Winterhalbjahr - ab dem zweiten Quartal 2002 allmählich wieder Fahrt aufnehmen, angeregt durch die wieder anziehende Konjunktur in den USA und den Umschwung im Lagerzyklus. Im Jahresdurchschnitt wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt mit 0,6% jedoch nur geringfügig stärker zunehmen als 2001, weil die Beschleunigung der Entwicklung im Jahresverlauf zu spät kommt, um die jährliche Wachstumsrate noch in erheblichem Maße beeinflussen zu können. Die Arbeitslosenzahl wird im Frühjahr saisonbereinigt die 4-Mill.-Schwelle überschreiten, und auch im Jahresdurchschnitt dürfte sie in dieser Größenordnung liegen. Der Preisanstieg wird sich im Jahr 2002 weiter beruhigen. Es ist nur noch mit einer Inflationsrate in Höhe von 1,5% zu rechnen.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Vor der Talsohle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 27-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:24:p:27-42
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2001_24_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "The Deutschmark in Eastern Europe, Black Money and the Euro: On the Size of the Effect," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(03), pages 35-40, February.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Verbraucherpreisentwicklung nach der Euro-Bargeldeinführung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(05), pages 54-56, March.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2002: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    3. Volker Rußig, 2002. "Bautätigkeit in Europa: Ab 2003 allmähliche Rückkehr auf flachen Expansionspfad," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(04), pages 26-33, February.
    4. Arno Städtler, 2001. "Leasingbranche erzielt hohe Marktanteilsgewinne - In Westdeutschland überspringt die Leasingquote die 20%-Marke," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 43-51, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wirtschaftslage; Konjunkturprognose; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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