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New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets

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  • Walter C. Labys

Abstract

This paper reviews the current state of economic and econometric research dealing with the modeling of commodity markets and their role in economic development. The application of statistical methods to commodity markets and prices has been limited because of the erratic behavior of prices and quantities over time. Nonetheless, a very rich field of modeling and forecasting has grown over time. This research began with the analysis of agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context and later was extended to mineral and energy industries. These models not only analyzed market history, but also evaluated commodity policies and forecast commodity prices. This paper first provides a perspective on the current status of this research and then offers prescriptions for the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter C. Labys, 2003. "New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 3-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:meddbu:med_122_0003
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    2. Ojogho, Osaihiomwan & Egware, Robert Awotu, 2015. "Price Generating Process And Volatility In Nigerian Agricultural Commodities Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, October.

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