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La dynamique des prix et des marchés de matières premières : analyses univariées versus faits stylisés analytiques

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  • Serge Calabre

Abstract

In several very recent IMF Staff Papers, researchers of the Fund team working on the development of commodity world prices provide statistical characteristics of a range of prices qualifying them as stylized facts, and associate them with a purely statistical definition of the life cycle of the price of a primary commodity. This article contrasts in a synthetic way this method of univariate and temporal analysis with the previous extensive literature which concentrates on the analysis of price and market dynamics of primary commodities. It demonstrates the interest generated rather by analytical stylized facts and offers five dealing with a series of pluri-annual price fluctuations, and two concerning the medium-term regulation of international markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge Calabre, 2003. "La dynamique des prix et des marchés de matières premières : analyses univariées versus faits stylisés analytiques," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 21-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:meddbu:med_122_0021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    4. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Mr. C. John McDermott & Mr. Alasdair Scott & Mr. Paul Cashin, 1999. "The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 1999/169, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    7. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-2.
    8. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
    9. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    10. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
    11. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    12. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Marc Joëts, 2013. "On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach," Working Papers hal-02474855, HAL.

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