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Long Memory In Futures Prices

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  • Barkoulas, John T
  • Labys, Walter C
  • Onochie, Joseph I

Abstract

This paper tests for fractional roots in the futures prices for selected commodities, foreign currencies, and stock indexes. The fractional testing method is the spectral regression method suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983). The empirical results suggest the presence of a fractional exponent in the differencing process for several commodity and foreign currency futures prices. The returns series for these commodities and currencies exhibit long range positive dependence. However, differencing of exact order one is sufficient for the stock index futures prices. Implications are drawn concerning theoretical and econometric modeling and price forecasting. Copyright 1999 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Barkoulas, John T & Labys, Walter C & Onochie, Joseph I, 1999. "Long Memory In Futures Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 91-100, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:34:y:1999:i:1:p:91-100
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ngene, Geoffrey & Tah, Kenneth A. & Darrat, Ali F., 2017. "Long memory or structural breaks: Some evidence for African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-73.
    2. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    3. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
    4. Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & Chandrashekhar G. R. & David McMillan, 2020. "Pitfalls in long memory research," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1733280-173, January.
    5. Jean-Christophe Statnik & David Verstraete, 2015. "Price dynamics in agricultural commodity markets: a comparison of European and US markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1103-1117, May.
    6. Geoffrey Ngene & Kenneth A. Tah & Ali F. Darrat, 2017. "Long memory or structural breaks: Some evidence for African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 61-73, September.
    7. Ellis, Craig & Wilson, Patrick, 2004. "Another look at the forecast performance of ARFIMA models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-81.
    8. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Hanif, Waqas & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba, 2018. "Intraday return inefficiency and long memory in the volatilities of forex markets and the role of trading volume," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 433-450.
    9. Manuel Monge & Ana Lazcano, 2022. "Commodity Prices after COVID-19: Persistence and Time Trends," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    10. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Atreya Chakraborty, 1998. "Persistent Dependence in Foreign Exchange Rates? A Reexamination," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 377, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 21 Apr 2000.
    11. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1998. "Fractional dynamics in Japanese financial time series," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 115-124, May.
    12. Walter C. Labys, 2003. "New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 3-19.
    13. Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    14. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling And Forecasting Of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-372, September.
    15. Batten, Jonathan & Ellis, Craig & Hogan, Warren, 2002. "Scaling the volatility of credit spreads: Evidence from Australian dollar eurobonds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 331-344.
    16. Liesivaara, Petri & Myyrä, Sami, 2016. "Income stabilisation tool and the pig gross margin index for the Finnish pig sector," 90th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2016, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 236360, Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    18. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2007. "Currency futures-spot basis and risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 180-197, April.
    19. repec:rri:wpaper:200501 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Long Memory and Forecasting in Euroyen Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 361, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Catherine Kyrtsou & Walter C. Labys & Michel Terraza, 2004. "Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 489-502, September.
    22. Yalama, Abdullah & Celik, Sibel, 2013. "Real or spurious long memory characteristics of volatility: Empirical evidence from an emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 67-72.
    23. Pilar Iglesias & Jaime San Martín & Soledad Torres & Frederi Viens, 2011. "Option pricing under a Gamma-modulated diffusion process," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 199-219, May.
    24. John Elder & Sriram Villupuram, 2012. "Persistence in the return and volatility of home price indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(22), pages 1855-1868, November.

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