IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/ecoldc/ecop_186_0145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La politique budgétaire et ses effets de seuil sur l'activité en Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA)

Author

Listed:
  • Nasser Ary Tanimoune
  • Jean-Louis Combes
  • Patrick Plane

Abstract

In 1999, WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) countries adopted a Convergence Pact. Its main goal is to constrain national fiscal policies so as to prevent macroeconomic imbalances and preserve the credibility of the common currency. While budgetary efforts may cause recession through Keynesian mechanisms, threshold effects may also exist in the relationship between fiscal policy and economic activity. The authors test a model in which the fiscal-policy effects are conditional upon the external public-debt ratio. Endogenous threshold modeling is applied from Hansen (1999). On average, African States exert a Keynesian influence on GDP when debt ratios are less than 83%.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasser Ary Tanimoune & Jean-Louis Combes & Patrick Plane, 2008. "La politique budgétaire et ses effets de seuil sur l'activité en Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA)," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(5), pages 145-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_186_0145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=ECOP_186_0145
    Download Restriction: free
    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economie-et-prevision-1-2008-5-page-145.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    3. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
    4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    6. Nasser Ary Tanimoune & Patrick Plane, 2005. "Performance et convergence des politiques économiques en zone franc," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 235-268.
    7. Patrick PLANE & Nasser ARY TANIMOUNE, 2005. "Performances et convergence des politiques économiques : La zone franc en Afrique de l’Ouest," Working Papers 200503, CERDI.
    8. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    11. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    12. G. Semedo & Patrick Villieu, 1997. "La zone franc : mécanismes et perspectives macroéconomiques," Post-Print halshs-00250892, HAL.
    13. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    14. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    15. Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
    16. Ms. Jan Gunning & Mr. Paul Collier, 1996. "Policy towards Commodity Shocks in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1996/084, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    18. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    19. Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 77, European Central Bank.
    20. Devarajan, Shantayanan & de Melo, Jaime, 1987. "Evaluating participation in African monetary unions: A statistical analysis of the CFA Zones," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 483-496, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salma Slimani, 2016. "Threshold Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity in Developing Countries," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 20-37, March.
    2. Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte, 2012. "Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA," Working Papers halshs-00828156, HAL.
    3. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Does the composition of government expenditures matter for sovereign bond spreads' evolution in developing countries?," CERDI Working papers halshs-02019063, HAL.
    4. Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE & Cheikh Tidiane NDIAYE, 2012. "Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 753, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Slimani Salma & El Abbassi Idriss & Tounsi Said, 2016. "Threshold effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in developing countries," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(3), pages 24-37, June.
    6. KPEMOUA, Palakiyèm, 2016. "La Dette Exterieure Handicape T’Elle La Croissance Economique Du Togo ? [Is External Debt A Brake On Togo’S Economic Growth?]," MPRA Paper 77403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2017.
    7. Salma Slimani, 2016. "Threshold Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity in Developing Countries," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(3), pages 20-37, March.
    8. Abdelmonaim Tlidi, 2013. "The Calculation of Structural Budget Balance: Case of Morocco," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 932-937.
    9. Semedo, Gervasio & Gauthier, Laurent & Bensafta, Kamel Malik, 2012. "Pôles de convergence, gains dynamiques de l’intégration économique et monétaire en Afrique de l’Ouest : une approche en termes de clusters," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 37-85, mars.
    10. Wissem Khanfir, 2016. "Threshold effect of fiscal policy on private consumption : Evidence from Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 95-110, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
    2. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    3. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Nickel, Christiane, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 935, European Central Bank.
    4. Woon Gyu Choi & Michael B. Devereux, 2006. "Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-8.
    5. LONZO LUBU, Gastonfils & AVOM, Desiré, 2014. "Les Effets Non Lineaires Des Dépenses Publiques Sur La Croissance Économique En Rd Congo [Nonlinear Effects Of Spending On Economic Growth In Dr Congo]," MPRA Paper 60716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Bertocco Giancarlo & Fanelli Luca & Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "On the determinants of inflation in Italy: evidence of cost-push effects before the European Monetary Union," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0223, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    8. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 2003. "The Relationship Between Large Fiscal Adjustments And Short‐Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 41-58, January.
    9. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2022. "Fiscal episodes in the Economic and Monetary Union: Elasticities and non‐Keynesian effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 571-593, January.
    10. Chibi Abderrahim & Chekouri Sidi Mohamed & Benbouziane Mohamed, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, December.
    11. Leopold Diebalek & Doris Prammer, 2006. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 78-109.
    12. Salma Slimani, 2016. "Threshold Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity in Developing Countries," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(3), pages 20-37, March.
    13. Gianluigi Giorgioni & Ken Holden, 2003. "Ricardian equivalence, expansionary fiscal contraction and the stock market: a VECM approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1435-1443.
    14. Wissem Khanfir, 2019. "Keynesian or Non-keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: the Case of Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 335-347, March.
    15. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    16. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
    17. Fabrizio Carmignani, "undated". "Cyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: the case of Africa," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2408, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    18. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    19. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    20. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2003. "Expectations and Perceived Causality in Fiscal Policy : An Experimental Analysis Using Real World Data," Papers 03-03, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_186_0145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cairn.info/revue-economie-et-prevision.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.