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Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA

Author

Listed:
  • Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte

    (GERSEG - Groupe de recherche en économique et en gestion - UGB - Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis Sénégal)

Abstract

Cet article propose une évaluation de la relation entre l'incertitude émanant de la volatilité de l'inflation et la croissance économique des pays de l'UEMOA. Il s'interroge également sur les répercussions des chocs d'inflation sur l'économie réelle des pays de la zone. L'étude s'appuie sur un modèle VAR-GARCH susceptible de faire ressortir, d'une part, les différentes caractéristiques des chocs d'inflation dans l'union, et d'autre part, les liens entre l'inflation incertaine et la croissance économique. Les résultats suggèrent la persistance accentuée de la volatilité de l'inflation et de l'activité économique mais aussi une ampleur très significative de l'incertitude de l'inflation. Les mécanismes de transmission de l'inflation incertaine sur la croissance économique sont différents selon les pays. Les politiques relatives à la convergence macroéconomique, à la stabilisation et au développement n'ont pas suffit à contrecarrer la persistance des fluctuations de l'inflation et de l'activité économique. De même, elles n'ont pas réussi à juguler les effets globalement négatifs de l'interaction des chocs d'inflation entre les pays et de l'inflation incertaine sur la croissance économique des pays de l'union. Une meilleure orientation et un caractère plus accommodant des politiques de stabilisation s'avèrent nécessaires pour apaiser les tensions sur les marchés des biens et du travail et pour propulser la capacité d'offre des économies de l'union.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte, 2012. "Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA," Working Papers halshs-00828156, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00828156
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00828156
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    1. ouhibi, saoussen & hammami, sami, 2018. "Does Public Debt Matter For Economic Growth? Evidence from southern Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 86378, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 May 2018.

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    Keywords

    croissance économique; Inflation; Incertitude de l'inflation; Fluctuation économique; croissance économique.;
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