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Policy towards Commodity Shocks in Developing Countries

Author

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  • Ms. Jan Gunning
  • Mr. Paul Collier

Abstract

On the basis of a comparative study of 23 episodes involving commodity price shocks we find that both the public and private sectors typically save around half of a windfall gain resulting from a price rise. We argue that private windfalls should be left with the private sector rather than taxed. The focus of policy towards windfalls should be monetary rather than fiscal. The central bank should accommodate aggregate changes in the demand for financial assets. The private sector will initially wish to increase its claims on the central bank as it saves the windfall, but will then reduce them as portfolios are switched into real assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Jan Gunning & Mr. Paul Collier, 1996. "Policy towards Commodity Shocks in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1996/084, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1996/084
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tornell, Aaron, 1999. "Voracity and growth in discrete time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 139-145, January.
    2. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1999. "Tying Governments' Hands in Commodity Taxation," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(2), pages 152-181, July.
    3. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: The Effects of Commodity Shocks and Uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Patrick Plane & Jean-Louis Combes & Nasser Ary Tanimoune, 2008. "La politique budgétaire et ses effets de seuil sur l’activité en Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA)," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 186(5), pages 145-162.
    5. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(4), pages 570-615, August.
    6. Larson, Donald F. & Varangis, Panos & Yabuki, Nanae, 1998. "Commodity risk management and development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1963, The World Bank.
    7. Antonio Rodríguez Andrés & Abraham Otero & Voxi Heinrich Amavilah, 2022. "Knowledge economy classification in African countries: A model-based clustering approach," Information Technology for Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 372-396, April.
    8. Kodjo Adandohoin & Jean-Francois Brun, 2020. "Are incomes and property taxes effective instruments for tax transition?," CERDI Working papers hal-03053683, HAL.
    9. Souleymane Diarra, 2012. "Effets des Chocs de Produits de Base sur la Mobilisation des Recettes Publiques dans les Pays d'Afrique Sub-saharienne," CERDI Working papers halshs-00658482, HAL.
    10. Segal, Paul, 2011. "Resource Rents, Redistribution, and Halving Global Poverty: The Resource Dividend," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 475-489, April.
    11. Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Mr. Tapio Saavalainen, 1998. "How to Deal with Azerbaijan’s Oil Boom? Policy Strategies in a Resource-Rich Transition Economy," IMF Working Papers 1998/006, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Asfaha, Samuel, 2007. "National Revenue Funds: Their Efficacy for Fiscal Stability and Intergenerational Equity," MPRA Paper 7656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    14. Kodjo Adandohoin & Jean-Francois Brun, 2021. "The Role of Income and Property Taxes in Tax Transition and the Mediating Effect of Financial Development," Post-Print hal-03470540, HAL.
    15. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank.
    16. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks: Implications for Economic Growth," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    18. Everhart, Stephen & Duval-Hernandez, Robert, 2001. "Management of oil windfalls in Mexico : historical experience and policy options for the future," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2592, The World Bank.
    19. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1997. "Voracity and Growth," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1807, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    20. Souleymane DIARRA, 2011. "Effets des Chocs de Produits de Base sur la Mobilisation des Recettes Publiques dans les Pays d’Afrique Sub-saharienne," Working Papers 201132, CERDI.
    21. Jean-Philippe Stijns, 2003. "An Empirical Test of the Dutch Disease Hypothesis using a Gravity Model of Trade," International Trade 0305001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Souleymane Diarra, 2012. "Effets des Chocs de Produits de Base sur la Mobilisation des Recettes Publiques dans les Pays d'Afrique Sub-saharienne," Working Papers halshs-00658482, HAL.
    23. Matthew Kofi Ocran & Nicholas Biekpe, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Prices In Macroeconomic Policy In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 213-220, June.

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