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Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

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  • Woon Gyu Choi
  • Michael B. Devereux

Abstract

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates, since the Ricardian effect is smaller at lower financing costs of fiscal policy. Using threshold regression models on U.S. data, the paper provides new evidence that expansionary government spending is more conducive to short-run growth when real rates are low. It also finds asymmetric effects on interest rates and inflation, and threshold effects associated with substitution between financing methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Woon Gyu Choi & Michael B. Devereux, 2005. "Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2005/007, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/007
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    3. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2008. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 345-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    5. Thomas Habanabakize, 2021. "Determining the Household Consumption Expenditure’s Resilience towards Petrol Price, Disposable Income and Exchange Rate Volatilities," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Measuring Interest Rates as Determined by Thrift and Productivity," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 167-195, May.
    7. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos & Anastasios D. Tsamis, 2012. "The Interrelationship between Money Supply, Prices and Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for the Case of Cyprus," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 5(3), pages 115-128, December.
    8. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    9. Vincent Belinga & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2015. "(Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2015/114, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "What causes changes in the effects of fiscal policy? A case study of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 14-31.
    11. Sascha Buetzer, 2022. "Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers," IMF Working Papers 2022/087, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Woon Gyu Choi, 2010. "Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/214, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; nominal interest rate; government spending shock; aggregate demand; confidence interval; growth rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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