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Replacement Referees and NFL Betting Markets

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  • Bryan C. McCannon

    (West Virginia University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Are betting markets efficient? The 2012 labor dispute between the NFL and the referees is used as a quasi-experiment to assess whether the betting markets are able to achieve accurate “prices†in an uncertain environment. More points were scored and underdogs performed relatively better resulting in upsets and closer-than-expected games. Betting markets, though, were unable to anticipate or adjust to this systematic effect even though irregularities in gambling markets were reported before the beginning of the season. Not only were they inefficient, but profitable betting strategies can be identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan C. McCannon, 2015. "Replacement Referees and NFL Betting Markets," Working Papers 15-20, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    • Handle: RePEc:wvu:wpaper:15-20
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    File URL: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1150&context=econ_working-papers
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    betting markets; efficiency; gambling; over-under; replacement referees; spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

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