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Après-ski: The spread of coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Felbermayr Gabriel

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany)

  • Hinz Julian

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany)

  • Chowdhry Sonali

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany)

Abstract

The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl is commonly claimed to be ground zero for the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the first wave of infections experienced by Germany. Drawing on data for 401 German counties, we find that conditional on geographical latitude and testing behavior by health authorities, road distance to Ischgl is indeed an important predictor of infection cases, but – in line with expectations – not of fatality rates. Were all German counties located as far from Ischgl as the most distant county of Vorpommern-Rügen, Germany would have seen about 45 % fewer COVID-19 cases. A simple diffusion model predicts that the absolute value of the distance-to-Ischgl elasticity should fall over time when inter- and intra-county mobility are unrestricted. We test this hypothesis and conclude that the German lockdown measures have halted the spread of the virus.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr Gabriel & Hinz Julian & Chowdhry Sonali, 2021. "Après-ski: The spread of coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 415-446, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:22:y:2021:i:4:p:415-446:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0063
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthonin Levelu & Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp, 2022. "A Lockdown a Day Keeps the Doctor Away: The Global Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Mitigating the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 10023, CESifo.
    2. Matthias Flückiger & Markus Ludwig, 2023. "Spatial networks and the spread of COVID-19: results and policy implications from Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 43(1), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Alipour, Jean-Victor & Falck, Oliver & Schüller, Simone, 2023. "Germany’s capacity to work from home," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Tobias Hartl, 2021. "Monitoring the pandemic: A fractional filter for the COVID-19 contact rate," Papers 2102.10067, arXiv.org.
    5. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    6. Landsgesell, Lukas & Stadler, Manfred, 2020. "The spread of COVID-19 in Germany: An application of the SIRDH model," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 139, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; super-spreaders; Germany; spatial diffusion; negative binomial model; tourism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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