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The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19

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  • Dhaval Dave
  • Drew McNichols
  • Joseph J. Sabia

Abstract

Large in‐person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID‐19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7–16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask‐wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay‐at‐home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID‐19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference‐in‐differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4–12.5% increase in COVID‐19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID‐19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 769-807, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:87:y:2021:i:3:p:769-807
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12475
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    6. Carl Singleton & Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & James Reade & Dominik Schreyer, 2022. "Economics lessons from sports during the COVID-19 pandemic," Chapters, in: Paul M. Pedersen (ed.), Research Handbook on Sport and COVID-19, chapter 2, pages 9-18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher Whaley, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 shelter‐in‐place policy responses on excess mortality," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 2499-2515, November.
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    10. Benjamin Hansen & Joseph J. Sabia & Jessamyn Schaller, 2022. "In-Person Schooling and Youth Suicide: Evidence from School Calendars and Pandemic School Closures," NBER Working Papers 30795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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