IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v87y2021i3p769-807.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19

Author

Listed:
  • Dhaval Dave
  • Drew McNichols
  • Joseph J. Sabia

Abstract

Large in‐person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID‐19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7–16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask‐wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay‐at‐home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID‐19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference‐in‐differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4–12.5% increase in COVID‐19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID‐19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 769-807, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:87:y:2021:i:3:p:769-807
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12475
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/soej.12475?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    2. Anger, Silke & Kvasnicka, Michael & Siedler, Thomas, 2011. "One Last Puff? Public Smoking Bans and Smoking Behavior," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 591-601.
    3. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2020. "Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-in-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth," NBER Working Papers 27229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jacek Rothert & Ryan Brady & Michael Insler, 2020. "Local containment policies and country-wide spread of Covid-19 in the United States: an epidemiological analysis," GRAPE Working Papers 48, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    5. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2020. "Mass Gatherings Contributed to Early COVID-19 Mortality: Evidence from US Sports," Economics working papers 2020-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. Marc F. Bellemare & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 50-61, February.
    7. Lawler, Emily C., 2017. "Effectiveness of vaccination recommendations versus mandates: Evidence from the hepatitis A vaccine," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 45-62.
    8. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Connor Redpath & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Risk Aversion, Offsetting Community Effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an Indoor Political Rally," NBER Working Papers 27522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gruenspecht, Howard K. & Lave, Lester B., 1989. "The economics of health, safety, and environmental regulation," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1507-1550, Elsevier.
    10. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    11. Christopher Carpenter & Sabina Postolek & Casey Warman, 2011. "Public-Place Smoking Laws and Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS)," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 35-61, August.
    12. Christopher J. Cronin & William N. Evans, 2020. "Private Precaution and Public Restrictions: What Drives Social Distancing and Industry Foot Traffic in the COVID-19 Era?," NBER Working Papers 27531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    14. Abrevaya, Jason & Mulligan, Karen, 2011. "Effectiveness of state-level vaccination mandates: Evidence from the varicella vaccine," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 966-976.
    15. Jacek Rothert & Ryan Brady & Michael Insler, 2020. "The Fragmented United States of America: The impact of scattered lock-down policies on country-wide infections," Departmental Working Papers 65, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    16. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Marlon Tracey & Alicia Plemmons & Ariel Belasen, 2022. "Throwing caution to the wind: How hurricanes affect COVID‐19 spread," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1258-1265, June.
    3. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2022. "The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 963-988, July.
    4. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    5. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher Whaley, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 shelter‐in‐place policy responses on excess mortality," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 2499-2515, November.
    6. Erica Chenoweth & Barton H. Hamilton & Hedwig Lee & Nicholas W. Papageorge & Stephen P. Roll & Matthew V. Zahn, 2022. "Who Protests, What Do They Protest, and Why?," NBER Working Papers 29987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Byron B. Carson, 2022. "Individuals and Externalities in Economic Epidemiology: A Tension and Synthesis," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 37(Fall 2022), pages 1-24.
    8. Benjamin Hansen & Joseph J. Sabia & Jessamyn Schaller, 2024. "In-Person Schooling and Youth Suicide: Evidence from School Calendars and Pandemic School Closures," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(S), pages 227-255.
    9. Benjamin Hansen & Joseph J. Sabia & Jessamyn Schaller, 2022. "In-Person Schooling and Youth Suicide: Evidence from School Calendars and Pandemic School Closures," NBER Working Papers 30795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carl Singleton & Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & James Reade & Dominik Schreyer, 2022. "Economics lessons from sports during the COVID-19 pandemic," Chapters, in: Paul M. Pedersen (ed.), Research Handbook on Sport and COVID-19, chapter 2, pages 9-18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13670, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Dhaval M. Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot," NBER Working Papers 28410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dhaval Dave & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2022. "The limits of reopening policy to alter economic behavior: New evidence from Texas," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 109-145, April.
    4. Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2022. "Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1345-1384, October.
    5. Dhaval Dave & Andrew Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Connor Redpath & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 133-167, October.
    6. Backhaus, Andreas, 2022. "International travel in times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of German school breaks," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    7. Sameem, Sediq, 2020. "Are U.S. lung cancer mortality rates converging?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 190-197.
    8. Ainoa Aparicio & Shoshana Grossbard, 2021. "Are COVID fatalities in the US higher than in the EU, and if so, why?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 307-326, June.
    9. James G. MacKinnon, 2019. "How cluster‐robust inference is changing applied econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 851-881, August.
    10. Taylor K. Odle & Jennifer A. Delaney, 2022. "You are Admitted! Early Evidence on Enrollment from Idaho’s Direct Admissions System," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 63(6), pages 899-932, September.
    11. Daniel Kuehnle & Christoph Wunder, 2017. "The Effects of Smoking Bans on Self‐Assessed Health: Evidence from Germany," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 321-337, March.
    12. Nadler, Carl & Allegretto, Sylvia & Godoey, Anna & Reich, Michael, 2019. "Are Local Minimum Wages Too High? Working Paper #102-19," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt7xt8716f, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    13. Saloni Khurana & Kanika Mahajan, 2022. "Public Safety for Women: Is Regulation of Social Drinking Spaces Effective?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 164-182, January.
    14. Green, Colin P. & Heywood, John S. & Navarro, María, 2016. "Traffic accidents and the London congestion charge," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 11-22.
    15. Christian Kümpel, 2019. "Do financial incentives influence the hospitalization rate of nursing home residents? Evidence from Germany," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1235-1247, November.
    16. Leah K. Lakdawala & David Simon, 2016. "The Intergenerational Consequences of Tobacco Policy," Working papers 2016-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    17. Cornelia Chadi, 2022. "Smoking Bans, Leisure Time and Subjective Well-being," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 3765-3797, December.
    18. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    19. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto, 2019. "Inference in Differences-in-Differences with Few Treated Groups and Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 452-467, July.
    20. Andrew M. Jones & Audrey Laporte & Nigel Rice & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2015. "Do Public Smoking Bans have an Impact on Active Smoking? Evidence from the UK," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 175-192, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:87:y:2021:i:3:p:769-807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.