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System effects of high demand‐side electrification rates: A scenario analysis for Germany in 2030

Author

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  • Andrej Guminski
  • Felix Böing
  • Alexander Murmann
  • Serafin von Roon

Abstract

The substitution of fossil fueled final energy consumption through electrical appliances and processes (electrification), in combination with an increased share of emission free electricity production, poses a promising deep decarbonization strategy. To reveal the effect of high demand‐side electrification rates on the transmission grid and electricity supply‐side a case‐study analysis for the German market is performed. A reference scenario with low demand‐side electrification and low grid congestion is compared to high demand‐side electrification scenarios with two different shares of renewable electricity production of total electrical load: “Elec61” and “Elec75.” The analysis shows that an increase of the electrical load from ~500 TWh to ~760 TWh leads to heightened stress for the transmission grid and therefore more curtailment in both electrification scenarios. In Elec61, which exhibits the same share of renewable electricity production as the reference scenario, the integration of 19 TWh of flexible power‐to‐heat in district heating networks reduces the market driven curtailment of renewable feed‐in, highlighting the value of flexible electrical loads for the integration of variable renewable energy sources. Although a drastic increase of installed renewable electricity production capacity occurs in Elec61 (+109 GW) and Elec75 (+178 GW) compared to the reference scenario, fossil fueled power plants are still being dispatched frequently in times of high electrical load and low renewable energy feed. In the examined scenarios, deep decarbonization through electrification was not possible because the decrease of the CO2‐coefficient of power generation resulting from an increase in the installed capacity of variable renewable energy sources was insufficient. This article is categorized under: Wind Power > Systems and Infrastructure Energy and Climate > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Systems Analysis > Systems and Infrastructure

Suggested Citation

  • Andrej Guminski & Felix Böing & Alexander Murmann & Serafin von Roon, 2019. "System effects of high demand‐side electrification rates: A scenario analysis for Germany in 2030," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:wireae:v:8:y:2019:i:2:n:e327
    DOI: 10.1002/wene.327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lechtenböhmer, Stefan & Nilsson, Lars J. & Åhman, Max & Schneider, Clemens, 2016. "Decarbonising the energy intensive basic materials industry through electrification – Implications for future EU electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1623-1631.
    2. Sugiyama, Masahiro, 2012. "Climate change mitigation and electrification," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 464-468.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter D. Lund & John Byrne, 2020. "Little time left to reverse emissions—Growing hope despite disappointing CO2 trend," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), January.
    2. Felix Böing & Anika Regett, 2019. "Hourly CO 2 Emission Factors and Marginal Costs of Energy Carriers in Future Multi-Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-32, June.
    3. Bernhard Faessler, 2021. "Stationary, Second Use Battery Energy Storage Systems and Their Applications: A Research Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.

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