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Reforming Path of China’s Fertility Policy in Stabilizing Demographic Dividends Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Pengkun Wu

    (Hunan University of Arts and Science
    Harbin Institute of Technology
    The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

  • Chong Wu

    (Harbin Institute of Technology)

  • Yuanyuan Wu

    (Harbin Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The recent years witnessed a sharp drop in China’s demographic dividend; therefore, some reform measures about China’s fertility policy have been adopted to optimize population structures and to maintain demographic dividend. However, our simulation results reveal that the new two-child fertility policy cannot effectively deal with population ageing, and that China’s fertility policy needs further adjustment. Specifically, we find that the new two-child fertility policy will deteriorate demographic dividend before 2050, through combination of simulation results and formula derivation. Aiming to stabilize demographic dividend at ideal range all the time, we build nonlinear integer programming model to propose an appropriate reforming path for China’s fertility policy. Then, we simulate and compare demographic developments under the proposed reforming path with those under three possible fertility policies: one-child, two-child and no fertility restriction, verifying that the proposed reforming path has better performance on stabilizing demographic dividend than these three fertility policies have. Finally, sensitivity analysis of upper bound of research interval is conducted to evaluate the effect of the upper bound on proposed reforming path. Based on these results, we suggest that China should continue to execute current strict fertility policy before 2032, then begin to relax it gradually especially during 2036–2041, and completely cancel fertility policy after 2065.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengkun Wu & Chong Wu & Yuanyuan Wu, 2018. "Reforming Path of China’s Fertility Policy in Stabilizing Demographic Dividends Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 1225-1243, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:137:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1642-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-017-1642-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xizhe Peng, 2013. "Understanding China'S Demographic Dividends And Labor Issue," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 408-410, March.
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    6. Oosthuizen, Morné J., 2015. "Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 14-22.
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