IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scjsta/v36y2009i1p157-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Normal Mixture Quasi‐maximum Likelihood Estimator for GARCH Models

Author

Listed:
  • TAEWOOK LEE
  • SANGYEOL LEE

Abstract

. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model has been popular in the analysis of financial time series data with high volatility. Conventionally, the parameter estimation in GARCH models has been performed based on the Gaussian quasi‐maximum likelihood. However, when the innovation terms have either heavy‐tailed or skewed distributions, the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) does not function well. In order to remedy this defect, we propose the normal mixture QMLE (NM‐QMLE), which is obtained from the normal mixture quasi‐likelihood, and demonstrate that the NM‐QMLE is consistent and asymptotically normal. Finally, we present simulation results and a real data analysis in order to illustrate our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Taewook Lee & Sangyeol Lee, 2009. "Normal Mixture Quasi‐maximum Likelihood Estimator for GARCH Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(1), pages 157-170, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:36:y:2009:i:1:p:157-170
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9469.2008.00624.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2008.00624.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2008.00624.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-360, July.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:753-778 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hall, Peter & Yao, Qiwei, 2003. "Inference in ARCH and GARCH models with heavy-tailed errors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5875, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Markus Haas, 2004. "Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 211-250.
    5. Bougerol, Philippe & Picard, Nico, 1992. "Stationarity of Garch processes and of some nonnegative time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 115-127.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Jensen, Søren Tolver & Rahbek, Anders, 2004. "Asymptotic Inference For Nonstationary Garch," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1203-1226, December.
    8. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 29-52, March.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    10. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-596, May.
    11. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 107-131, April.
    12. Peter Hall & Qiwei Yao, 2003. "Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy--Tailed Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 285-317, January.
    13. Bai, Xuezheng & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tiao, George C., 2003. "Kurtosis of GARCH and stochastic volatility models with non-normal innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 349-360, June.
    14. Berkes, István & Horváth, Lajos, 2003. "The rate of consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 133-143, January.
    15. A. Azzalini & A. Capitanio, 1999. "Statistical applications of the multivariate skew normal distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(3), pages 579-602.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Hui & Pan, Jiazhu, 2014. "Normal mixture quasi maximum likelihood estimation for non-stationary TGARCH(1,1) models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 117-123.
    2. Lee, Sangyeol & Tim Ng, Chi, 2010. "Trimmed portmanteau test for linear processes with infinite variance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(4), pages 984-998, April.
    3. Hwang, S.Y. & Baek, J.S. & Park, J.A. & Choi, M.S., 2010. "Explosive volatilities for threshold-GARCH processes generated by asymmetric innovations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 26-33, January.
    4. Caporin, Massimiliano & Rossi, Eduardo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2017. "Chasing volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 122-145.
    5. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2023. "Discrete mixtures of normals pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 643-665.
    6. Lee, Sangyeol & Ng, Chi Tim, 2011. "Normality test for multivariate conditional heteroskedastic dynamic regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 75-77, April.
    7. Ha, Jeongcheol & Lee, Taewook, 2011. "NM-QELE for ARMA-GARCH models with non-Gaussian innovations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(6), pages 694-703, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wang, Hui & Pan, Jiazhu, 2014. "Normal mixture quasi maximum likelihood estimation for non-stationary TGARCH(1,1) models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 117-123.
    3. Luger, Richard, 2012. "Finite-sample bootstrap inference in GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3198-3211.
    4. Jianqing Fan & Lei Qi & Dacheng Xiu, 2014. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of GARCH Models With Heavy-Tailed Likelihoods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 178-191, April.
    5. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    6. repec:bgu:wpaper:0607 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eric Beutner & Julia Schaumburg & Barend Spanjers, 2024. "Bootstrapping GARCH Models Under Dependent Innovations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Preminger, Arie & Storti, Giuseppe, 2014. "Least squares estimation for GARCH (1,1) model with heavy tailed errors," MPRA Paper 59082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zhu, Ke & Ling, Shiqing, 2013. "Global self-weighted and local quasi-maximum exponential likelihood estimators for ARMA-GARCH/IGARCH models," MPRA Paper 51509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Zhu, Ke & Li, Wai Keung, 2013. "A new Pearson-type QMLE for conditionally heteroskedastic models," MPRA Paper 52344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    12. Meister, Alexander & Kreiß, Jens-Peter, 2016. "Statistical inference for nonparametric GARCH models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 126(10), pages 3009-3040.
    13. Ling, Shiqing, 2007. "Self-weighted and local quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for ARMA-GARCH/IGARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 849-873, October.
    14. Li, Dong & Li, Muyi & Wu, Wuqing, 2014. "On dynamics of volatilities in nonstationary GARCH models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 86-90.
    15. Ryoko Ito, 2016. "Asymptotic Theory for Beta-t-GARCH," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1607, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Delaigle, Aurore & Meister, Alexander & Rombouts, Jeroen, 2016. "Root-T consistent density estimation in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 55-63.
    17. Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard & Rahbek, Anders, 2016. "Nonstationary GARCH with t-distributed innovations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 19-21.
    18. Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen & Anders Rahbek, 2015. "Nonstationary ARCH and GARCH with t-distributed Innovations," CREATES Research Papers 2015-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. PREMINGER, Arie & STORTI, Giuseppe, 2006. "A GARCH (1,1) estimator with (almost) no moment conditions on the error term," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006068, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    20. Dinghai Xu & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach to VaR under a Mixture of Normal Distribution with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Papers 08008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
    21. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:36:y:2009:i:1:p:157-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0303-6898 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.