IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v35y2009i1p159-187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Segmented Trend Line of Highest Life Expectancies

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Vallin
  • France Meslé

Abstract

The well‐known Oeppen–Vaupel straight line of maximum female life expectancies showed that the highest life expectancy observed in a given year increased linearly from 1840 to 2000. Their analysis fueled major controversy, especially when used to extrapolate future improvements in life expectancy at the same pace. We improve on the empirical analysis by enriching the dataset, expanding the period to 1750–2005, and considering both maximum life expectancy at birth and lowest age‐specific survival rates. It clearly appears that the original Oeppen–Vaupel straight line must be divided into several segments characterized by different slopes and that each segment corresponds to a major advance in the health transition. There is room to push life expectancy higher, but unless some new breakthrough increases the human life span, progress will very likely decelerate as mortality reduction affects individuals at older and older ages. The main key to the future lies not in knowing whether the observed straight line can be extrapolated but in anticipating the next major health improvement that will lead to an additional increase in life expectancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Vallin & France Meslé, 2009. "The Segmented Trend Line of Highest Life Expectancies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(1), pages 159-187, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:35:y:2009:i:1:p:159-187
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00264.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00264.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00264.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacques Vallin & France Meslé, 2004. "Convergences and divergences in mortality," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(2), pages 11-44.
    2. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1951_6n2_0204 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kieron J. Barclay & Mikko Myrskylä, 2016. "Parental age and offspring mortality: negative effects of reproductive aging are outweighed by secular increases in longevity," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Life expectancy and education: evidence from the cardiovascular revolution," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 421-450, December.
    3. Jackie Li & Jia Liu, 2020. "A modified extreme value perspective on best-performance life expectancy," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 345-375, December.
    4. Pascariu, Marius D. & Canudas-Romo, Vladimir & Vaupel, James W., 2018. "The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 339-350.
    5. Luis Miguel Bello-Lujan & Jose Antonio Serrano-Sanchez & Juan Jose Gonzalez-Henriquez, 2022. "Stable Gender Gap and Similar Gender Trend in Chronic Morbidities between 1997–2015 in Adult Canary Population," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Filipe Costa Souza, 2020. "Relationships between best-practice and greatest possible life expectancies," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 331-339, September.
    7. Anthony Medford, 2021. "Modeling Best Practice Life Expectancy Using Gumbel Autoregressive Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, March.
    8. Søren Kjærgaard & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2017. "Potential support ratios: Cohort versus period perspectives," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 171-186, May.
    9. Anthony Medford & James W. Vaupel, 2020. "Extremes are not normal: a reminder to demographers," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 91-106, March.
    10. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relationship between longevity and lifespan variation," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(3), pages 481-493, September.
    11. Liou, Lathan & Joe, William & Kumar, Abhishek & Subramanian, S.V., 2020. "Inequalities in life expectancy: An analysis of 201 countries, 1950–2015," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    12. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.
    13. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    14. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
    15. Verguet, Stéphane & Jamison, Dean T., 2013. "Performance in rate of decline of adult mortality in the OECD, 1970–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 137-142.
    16. Torri, Tiziana & Vaupel, James W., 2012. "Forecasting life expectancy in an international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 519-531.
    17. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4061-4073, December.
    18. Sugeng Setyadi & Saharuddin Didu & Lili Indriyani & Ananda Kurnia Fitri & Anita Wiidiastuti, 2023. "Modeling Life Expectancy in Indonesia Using System GMM Model," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 83-98, June.
    19. Anthony Medford, 2017. "Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(34), pages 989-1014.
    20. Mariana Mourgova, 2018. "Gender Differences in Life Expectancy with Chronic Disease at Old Age in Bulgaria," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 25-34, March.
    21. Jia Liu & Jackie Li, 2019. "Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 159-181, June.
    22. Mackenbach, Johan P., 2013. "Political conditions and life expectancy in Europe, 1900–2008," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 134-146.
    23. Michal Engelman & Vladimir Canudas‐Romo & Emily M. Agree, 2010. "The Implications of Increased Survivorship for Mortality Variation in Aging Populations," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 511-539, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michala Lustigova & Dagmar Dzurova & Claudia Costa & Paula Santana, 2019. "Health Disparities in Czechia and Portugal at Country and Municipality Levels," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Fanny Janssen & Anthe van den Hende & Joop de Beer & Leo van Wissen, 2016. "Sigma and beta convergence in regional mortality: A case study of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(4), pages 81-116.
    3. Nadine Ouellette & Magali Barbieri & John R. Wilmoth, 2014. "Period-Based Mortality Change: Turning Points in Trends since 1950," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 77-106, March.
    4. Suryakant Yadav, 2021. "Progress of Inequality in Age at Death in India: Role of Adult Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 523-550, July.
    5. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    6. Evgeny M. Andreev, 2019. "Reflections on demographic theories," Population and Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 3(2), pages 1-9, June.
    7. Hippolyte d'Albis & Loesse Jacques Esso & Héctor Pifarré I Arolas, 2014. "Persistent Differences in Mortality Patterns across Industrialized Countries," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01061000, HAL.
    8. Vladimir Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Zhen Zhang & James Oeppen & James Vaupel, 2011. "Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 211-239, February.
    9. Pavel Grigoriev & Markéta Pechholdová, 2017. "Health Convergence Between East and West Germany as Reflected in Long-Term Cause-Specific Mortality Trends: To What Extent was it Due to Reunification?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 701-731, December.
    10. Marie-Hélène Lussier & Robert Bourbeau & Robert Choinière, 2008. "Does the recent evolution of Canadian mortality agree with the epidemiologic transition theory?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(19), pages 531-568.
    11. Małgorzata Pikala & Monika Burzyńska & Irena Maniecka-Bryła, 2019. "Standard Expected Years of Life Lost Due to Malignant Neoplasms in Poland, 2000–2014," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Nataliia Levchuk, 2009. "Alcohol and mortality in Ukraine," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Ilona Székely Kovácsné & Éva Fenyvesi & Tibor Pintér, 2023. "Principal Component Analysis - Points of Association Between Cancer and Economic Development," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 15(2), pages 91-130, June.
    14. Emerson Baptista & Bernardo Queiroz, 2019. "The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development: Study for small areas in Brazil, 2001–2015," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(51), pages 1437-1452.
    15. Alyson van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Lifespan Variation by Occupational Class: Compression or Stagnation Over Time?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 73-95, February.
    16. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny M. Andreev & Zhen Zhang & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2009. "Losses of expected lifetime in the US and other developed countries: methods and empirical analyses," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-042, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Brian Houle & Samuel J Clark & F Xavier Gómez-Olivé & Kathleen Kahn & Stephen M Tollman, 2014. "The Unfolding Counter-Transition in Rural South Africa: Mortality and Cause of Death, 1994–2009," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-10, June.
    18. Martin Gächter & Engelbert Theurl, 2010. "Convergence of the Health Status at the Local Level: Empirical Evidence from Austria," NRN working papers 2010-09, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    19. France Meslé & Jacques Vallin, 2017. "The End of East–West Divergence in European Life Expectancies? An Introduction to the Special Issue," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 615-627, December.
    20. Agnieszka Fihel & Marketa Pechholdová, 2017. "Between ‘Pioneers’ of the Cardiovascular Revolution and Its ‘Late Followers’: Mortality Changes in the Czech Republic and Poland Since 1968," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 651-678, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:35:y:2009:i:1:p:159-187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.