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Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach

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  • Anthony Medford

    (Syddansk Universitet)

Abstract

Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. Comments: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Medford, 2017. "Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(34), pages 989-1014.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:36:y:2017:i:34
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez, Jesús-Adrián & Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene & Kjærgaard, Søren, 2021. "Linking retirement age to life expectancy does not lessen the demographic implications of unequal lifespans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 363-375.
    2. Anthony Medford, 2021. "Modeling Best Practice Life Expectancy Using Gumbel Autoregressive Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, March.
    3. Anthony Medford & James W. Vaupel, 2020. "Extremes are not normal: a reminder to demographers," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 91-106, March.
    4. Jia Liu & Jackie Li, 2019. "Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 159-181, June.
    5. Jackie Li & Jia Liu, 2020. "A modified extreme value perspective on best-performance life expectancy," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 345-375, December.
    6. Anthony Medford & Kaare Christensen & Axel Skytthe & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "A Cohort Comparison of Lifespan After Age 100 in Denmark and Sweden: Are Only the Oldest Getting Older?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 665-677, April.
    7. Jesús-Adrián Álvarez & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Søren Kjærgaard, 2020. "Linking retirement age to life expectancy does not lessen the demographic implications of unequal lifespans," CREATES Research Papers 2020-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life expectancy; best-practice life expectancy; projecting best-practice life expectancy; extreme value theory; generalised extreme value distribution; innovations process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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