IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v36y2010i3p511-539.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Implications of Increased Survivorship for Mortality Variation in Aging Populations

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Engelman
  • Vladimir Canudas‐Romo
  • Emily M. Agree

Abstract

The remarkable growth in life expectancy during the twentieth century inspired predictions of a future in which all people, not just a fortunate few, will live long lives ending at or near the maximum human life span. We show that increased longevity has been accompanied by less variation in ages at death, but survivors to the oldest ages have grown increasingly heterogeneous in their mortality risks. These trends are consistent across countries, and apply even to populations with record‐low variability in the length of life. We argue that as a result of continuing improvements in survival, delayed mortality selection has shifted health disparities from early to later life, where they manifest in the growing inequalities in late‐life mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Engelman & Vladimir Canudas‐Romo & Emily M. Agree, 2010. "The Implications of Increased Survivorship for Mortality Variation in Aging Populations," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 511-539, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:36:y:2010:i:3:p:511-539
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00344.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00344.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00344.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce A. Carnes & S. Jay Olshansky, 2007. "A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 367-381, June.
    2. James C. Riley, 2005. "The Timing and Pace of Health Transitions around the World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 741-764, December.
    3. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_13n1_0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Wilkinson, Richard G & Pickett, Kate E., 2006. "Income inequality and population health: A review and explanation of the evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(7), pages 1768-1784, April.
    5. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_13n1_0071 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Roland Rau & Eugeny Soroko & Domantas Jasilionis & James W. Vaupel, 2008. "Continued Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 747-768, December.
    7. John Wilmoth & Shiro Horiuchi, 1999. "Rectangularization revisited: Variability of age at death within human populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 475-495, November.
    8. Smits, Jeroen & Monden, Christiaan, 2009. "Length of life inequality around the globe," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1114-1123, March.
    9. Jacques Vallin & France Meslé, 2009. "The Segmented Trend Line of Highest Life Expectancies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(1), pages 159-187, March.
    10. Siu Cheung & Jean-Marie Robine & Edward Tu & Graziella Caselli, 2005. "Three dimensions of the survival curve: horizontalization, verticalization, and longevity extension," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(2), pages 243-258, May.
    11. Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2008. "The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(30), pages 1179-1204.
    12. Ryan D. Edwards & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2005. "Inequality in Life Spans and a New Perspective on Mortality Convergence Across Industrialized Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 645-674, December.
    13. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    14. Kevin M. White, 2002. "Longevity Advances in High‐Income Countries, 1955–96," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 59-76, March.
    15. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
    16. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_13n1_0193 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mason, Carl N. & Miller, Timothy, 2018. "International projections of age specific healthcare consumption: 2015–2060," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 202-217.
    2. Hui Zheng & Y. Claire Yang & Kenneth C. Land, 2016. "Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(1), pages 49-71, February.
    3. Tim Riffe & Jose Manuel Aburto, 2020. "Lexis fields," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(24), pages 713-726.
    4. Dustin Brown & Mark Hayward & Jennifer Montez & Robert Hummer & Chi-Tsun Chiu & Mira Hidajat, 2012. "The Significance of Education for Mortality Compression in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 819-840, August.
    5. Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton, 2017. "Compression of mortality: the evolution in the variability in the age of death in Latin America," OSF Preprints pdnfk, Center for Open Science.
    6. Isaac Sasson, 2016. "Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 269-293, April.
    7. Dalkhat M. Ediev, 2013. "Decompression of Period Old-Age Mortality: When Adjusted for Bias, the Variance in the Ages at Death Shows Compression," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 137-154, July.
    8. Liou, Lathan & Joe, William & Kumar, Abhishek & Subramanian, S.V., 2020. "Inequalities in life expectancy: An analysis of 201 countries, 1950–2015," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    9. Iñaki Permanyer & Nathalie Scholl, 2019. "Global trends in lifespan inequality: 1950-2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, May.
    10. Nico Keilman, 2019. "Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(40), pages 1147-1196.
    11. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2020. "Multidimensional Mortality Selection: Why Individual Dimensions of Frailty Don’t Act Like Frailty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 747-777, April.
    12. Thomas Spoorenberg, 2016. "On the masculinization of population: The contribution of demographic development -- A look at sex ratios in Sweden over 250 years," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(37), pages 1053-1062.
    13. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.
    14. Ana Isabel Ribeiro & Elias Teixeira Krainski & Marilia Sá Carvalho & Guy Launoy & Carole Pornet & Maria de Fátima Pina, 2018. "Does community deprivation determine longevity after the age of 75? A cross-national analysis," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 63(4), pages 469-479, May.
    15. Viorela Diaconu & Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau, 2020. "Modal lifespan and disparity at older ages by leading causes of death: a Canada-U.S. comparison," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 323-344, December.
    16. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Engelman, Michal, 2022. "Social insurance programs and later-life mortality: Evidence from new deal relief spending," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
    18. Michal Engelman & Hal Caswell & Emily Agree, 2014. "Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(48), pages 1367-1396.
    19. Iñaki Permanyer & Jeroen Spijker & Amand Blanes & Elisenda Renteria, 2018. "Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2045-2070, December.
    20. Alyson A. van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2012. "Lifespan variation by occupational class: compression or stagnation over time?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    21. Glenn Firebaugh & Francesco Acciai & Aggie Noah & Christopher Prather & Claudia Nau, 2014. "Why Lifespans Are More Variable Among Blacks Than Among Whites in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2025-2045, December.
    22. Janina Nemitz, 2022. "Increasing longevity and life satisfaction: is there a catch to living longer?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 557-589, April.
    23. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2014. "Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 51-71, February.
    24. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
    25. Oscar E Fernandez & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, 2022. "Life span inequality as a function of the moments of the deaths distribution: Connections and insights," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michal Engelman & Hal Caswell & Emily Agree, 2014. "Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(48), pages 1367-1396.
    2. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.
    3. Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
    4. Jorge M. Uribe & Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillen, 2018. "Trends in the Quantiles of the Life Table Survivorship Function," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 793-817, December.
    5. Iñaki Permanyer & Jeroen Spijker & Amand Blanes & Elisenda Renteria, 2018. "Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2045-2070, December.
    6. Hui Zheng & Y. Claire Yang & Kenneth C. Land, 2016. "Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(1), pages 49-71, February.
    7. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
    8. Dustin Brown & Mark Hayward & Jennifer Montez & Robert Hummer & Chi-Tsun Chiu & Mira Hidajat, 2012. "The Significance of Education for Mortality Compression in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 819-840, August.
    9. Ryan Edwards, 2013. "The cost of uncertain life span," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1485-1522, October.
    10. Suryakant Yadav, 2021. "Progress of Inequality in Age at Death in India: Role of Adult Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 523-550, July.
    11. Francisco Goerlich, 2020. "Distributionally adjusted life expectancy as a life table function," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(14), pages 365-400.
    12. Patrick Meyer & Gregory Ponthiere, 2020. "Human lifetime entropy in a historical perspective (1750–2014)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(1), pages 129-167, January.
    13. Pinheiro, Pedro Cisalpino & Queiroz, Bernardo L, 2018. "Regional Disparities in Brazilian Adult Mortality: an analysis using Modal Age at Death (M) and Compression of Mortality (IQR)," OSF Preprints t2ey3, Center for Open Science.
    14. Alyson van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Lifespan Variation by Occupational Class: Compression or Stagnation Over Time?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 73-95, February.
    15. Alyson Raalte & Hal Caswell, 2013. "Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1615-1640, October.
    16. Konstantinos N. Zafeiris, 2023. "Greece since the 1960s: the mortality transition revisited: a joinpoint regression analysis," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
    17. Ryan D. Edwards, 2010. "Trends in World Inequality in Life Span Since 1970," NBER Working Papers 16088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Lucia Zanotto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
    19. Viorela Diaconu & Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau, 2020. "Modal lifespan and disparity at older ages by leading causes of death: a Canada-U.S. comparison," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 323-344, December.
    20. A. Roger Thatcher & Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Shiro Horiuchi & Jean-Marie Robine, 2010. "The compression of deaths above the mode," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(17), pages 505-538.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:36:y:2010:i:3:p:511-539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.