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Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds

Author

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  • Jia Liu

    (Macquarie University)

  • Jackie Li

    (Macquarie University)

Abstract

The strong, persistent linear trend of the highest period life expectancy of females at birth, namely best-performance life expectancy, is an interesting global phenomenon which has already lasted for about 150 years. In this article, we study both the highest and lowest period life expectancies of a group of more developed countries and areas, and exploit their recent trends to construct approximate upper and lower bounds as a supplementary tool for future projections. We also seek two modifications of this proposed approach. First, despite that it has remained largely an empirical observation, we intend to examine the use of extreme value theory to provide a more theoretical framework for both the highest and lowest life expectancies. Second, we construct two hypothetical populations with each age experiencing the lowest or highest mortality rate amongst all the populations considered, and extrapolate their life expectancy trends into the future. The resulting life expectancy bounds perform reasonably well in our backtesting exercise and can potentially complement the usual application of a stochastic mortality model to the data of a single country.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia Liu & Jackie Li, 2019. "Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 159-181, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:36:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s12546-019-09221-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-019-09221-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jackie Li & Jia Liu, 2020. "A modified extreme value perspective on best-performance life expectancy," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 345-375, December.
    2. Jackie Li & Jia Liu & Adam Butt, 2024. "A systematic vector autoregressive framework for modeling and forecasting mortality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2279-2297, September.
    3. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4061-4073, December.
    4. Anthony Medford, 2021. "Modeling Best Practice Life Expectancy Using Gumbel Autoregressive Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, March.
    5. Jacie Jia Liu, 2021. "A Study on Link Functions for Modelling and Forecasting Old-Age Survival Probabilities of Australia and New Zealand," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, January.

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