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Direct and indirect effects of training vouchers for the unemployed

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  • Martin Huber
  • Michael Lechner
  • Anthony Strittmatter

Abstract

The paper evaluates the effects of awarding vouchers for vocational training on the employment outcomes of unemployed voucher recipients in Germany, as well as the potential mechanism through which they operate. This study assesses the direct effects of voucher assignment net of actual redemption, which may be driven by preference shaping and learning about possible human capital investments or simply by the costs of information gathering. Using a formal mediation analysis framework based on sequential conditional independence assumptions and semiparametric matching estimators, our results suggest that the negative short‐term and positive long‐term employment effects of receiving a voucher are mainly driven by actual training participation. However, the direct effect of just obtaining a voucher is negative over the short run as well. This result points to potential losses in the effectiveness of such training provision systems if individuals decide not to redeem vouchers, as the chances of employment are lower than under non‐award over the short run and under redemption over the long run, which makes non‐redemption the least attractive option.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Huber & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2018. "Direct and indirect effects of training vouchers for the unemployed," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(2), pages 441-463, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:181:y:2018:i:2:p:441-463
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12279
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    Cited by:

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    2. Doerr Annabelle & Strittmatter Anthony, 2021. "Identifying Causal Channels of Policy Reforms with Multiple Treatments and Different Types of Selection," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 67-88, January.
    3. Doerr, Annabelle, 2022. "Vocational training for female job returners - Effects on employment, earnings and job quality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Karol Madoń & Iga Magda & Marta Palczyńska & Mateusz Smoter, 2024. "What Works for Whom? Youth Labour Market Policy in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 1-34.
    5. Patrick Ring & Christoph A. Schütt & Dennis J. Snower, 2023. "Care and anger motives in social dilemmas," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 95(2), pages 273-308, August.
    6. Bhanot, Syon P. & Crost, Benjamin & Leight, Jessica & Mvukiyehe, Eric & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2021. "Can community service grants foster social and economic integration for youth? A randomized trial in Kazakhstan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Marco Doretti & Martina Raggi & Elena Stanghellini, 2022. "Exact parametric causal mediation analysis for a binary outcome with a binary mediator," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(1), pages 87-108, March.
    8. Matthew Blackwell & Anton Strezhnev, 2022. "Telescope matching for reducing model dependence in the estimation of the effects of time‐varying treatments: An application to negative advertising," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 377-399, January.
    9. Helmut Farbmacher & Martin Huber & Lukáš Lafférs & Henrika Langen & Martin Spindler, 2022. "Causal mediation analysis with double machine learning [Mediation analysis via potential outcomes models]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 277-300.
    10. Junquera, Álvaro F., 2024. "More money, more effect? Employment effects of job search programs in Veneto," SocArXiv rjshu, Center for Open Science.
    11. Massimiliano Bratti & Corinna Ghirelli & Enkelejda Havari & Giulia Santangelo, 2022. "Vocational training for unemployed youth in Latvia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 677-717, April.
    12. Anthony Strittmatter, 2016. "What effect do vocational training vouchers have on the unemployed?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 316-316, November.
    13. Doerr, Annabelle, 2022. "Vocational Training for Female Job Returners - Effects on Employment, Earnings and Job Quality," Working papers 2022/02, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    14. Bratti, Massimiliano & Ghirelli, Corinna & Havari, Enkelejda & Santangelo, Giulia, 2018. "Vocational Training for Unemployed Youth in Latvia: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 11870, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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