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Mögliche Auswirkungen eines harten oder weichen Brexit auf die deutsche Landwirtschaft - Update

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  • Banse, Martin
  • Freund, Florian

Abstract

The United Kingdom (UK) is an important destination for German agri-food products. This becomes especially apparent when looking at the German-UK trade balance of agricultural products, where Germany had a surplus of 3.1 Billion € in 2016. Furthermore, the UK is the trade partner where Germany exhibits the largest trade surplus. Those facts already suggest that Germany is likely to be affected by a changing trade environment following Brexit. In this working paper we are considering a soft Brexit scenario where we assume a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement and a more protective hard Brexit scenario with reciprocal imposition of MFN tariffs between EU and UK. The model results suggest that the decline in production value of German agri-food products amounts 400 Million € in the soft Brexit scenario and is three times larger in the hard Brexit scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Banse, Martin & Freund, Florian, 2018. "Mögliche Auswirkungen eines harten oder weichen Brexit auf die deutsche Landwirtschaft - Update," Thünen Working Paper 271872, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jhimwp:271872
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.271872
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    1. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    2. Banse, Martin & Freund, Florian, 2017. "Mögliche Auswirkungen eines Brexit auf den deutschen Agrarhandel," Thünen Working Paper 256935, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    3. Pierre Boulanger & George Philippidis, 2015. "The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 832-842, September.
    4. Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Daniel Stöhlker, 2017. "Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy," EconPol Policy Reports 4, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Political Economy; Production Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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